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On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is a promising recent approach that uses arbitrary feedback as learning signal, yet its reliability compared to established methods, such as GRPO, remains unclear. We identify a strikingly consistent linear correlation between the initial student-self-teacher performance gap and the final performance improvement in OPSD. This relationship holds across context types and model families, providing a powerful predictive law for anticipating the outcome of an OPSD configuration without running the full training procedure. Interestingly, we show that this linear predictability holds with model scale, suggesting a potential basis for new empirical scaling laws on larger models with stronger in-context learning capabilities. In essence, our findings show that OPSD performance can be predicted ","title":"A Predictive Law for On-Policy Self-Distillation From World Feedback","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30070","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.30070v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Moving beyond simple scalar rewards toward richer world feedback is a natural path to more scalable RL post-training. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is a promising recent approach that uses arbitrary feedback as learning signal, yet its reliability compared to established methods, such as GRPO, remains unclear. We identify a strikingly consistent linear correlation between the initial student-self-teacher performance gap and the final performance improvement in OPSD. This relationship holds across context types and model families, providing a powerful predictive law for anticipating the outcome of an OPSD configuration without running the full training procedure. Interestingly, we show that this linear predictability holds with model scale, suggesting a potential basis for new empirical scaling laws on larger models with stronger in-context learning capabilities. 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