{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_06c45a5099bd259573e4c67ea3015861895fd2b3686a8fea784cf7dc07aacb35","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":["bitcoin_block_949451"],"calendar_attestations":["https://finney.calendar.eternitywall.com","https://btc.calendar.catallaxy.com","https://alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org","https://bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org"],"ots_url":"/registry/data/substrate/anchors/77fc9c28fae777b81da5b495b3115474df6592dfac590333213d3bdf8b94a9b3.ots","stamped_at":"2026-05-15T03:00:03Z","status":"bitcoin"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_06c45a5099bd259573e4c67ea3015861895fd2b3686a8fea784cf7dc07aacb35","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"822ceb16fbbd0616a0353afc730178b204ac301b5e5c3a0501283c2d27518f1a","published":"Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"822ceb16fbbd0616a0353afc730178b204ac301b5e5c3a0501283c2d27518f1a","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"822ceb16fbbd0616a0353afc730178b204ac301b5e5c3a0501283c2d27518f1a","observed_at":"2026-05-08T04:43:40.537619Z","parent_run_hash":"9837a17a0d4866b3bef2929e933ca29d96f4bd9656766df36f8260d720835b95","published":"Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2605.05218v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Predictive multiplicity and chaotic dynamics represent two fundamental challenges in machine learning that have evolved independently despite their conceptual connections. We bridge this gap by introducing horizon-constrained Rashomon sets, a theoretical framework that characterizes how model multiplicity evolves with prediction horizon in chaotic systems. Unlike static prediction tasks where the Rashomon set remains fixed, chaos induces exponential divergence among initially similar models, fundamentally transforming the nature of predictive equivalence. We prove that the effective Rashomon set contracts exponentially with lead time at a rate determined by the maximum Lyapunov exponent and introduce Lyapunov-weighted metrics that provide tighter bounds on predictive disagreement. Leveraging these insights, we develop decision-aligned selection algorithms that choose among near-optimal models based on downstream utility rather than for","title":"Horizon-Constrained Rashomon Sets for Chaotic Forecasting","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05218","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.05218v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Predictive multiplicity and chaotic dynamics represent two fundamental challenges in machine learning that have evolved independently despite their conceptual connections. We bridge this gap by introducing horizon-constrained Rashomon sets, a theoretical framework that characterizes how model multiplicity evolves with prediction horizon in chaotic systems. Unlike static prediction tasks where the Rashomon set remains fixed, chaos induces exponential divergence among initially similar models, fundamentally transforming the nature of predictive equivalence. We prove that the effective Rashomon set contracts exponentially with lead time at a rate determined by the maximum Lyapunov exponent and introduce Lyapunov-weighted metrics that provide tighter bounds on predictive disagreement. Leveraging these insights, we develop decision-aligned selection algorithms that choose among near-optimal models based on downstream utility rather than for","title":"Horizon-Constrained Rashomon Sets for Chaotic Forecasting","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-08T04:43:40Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05218"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:420582706526b66c78b1e8b81c7df39b078801ccb22875d49a6153a05166a1157037ba3bf6ad21197a4607a7dd5e3fd9a09a4776adfd17dca3d8236fb75adf0d","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-08T04:43:40Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05218"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"b26cd034f6c80f1586ed7bc801138f89d92522fcbb4555def038e5c068084819","leaf_index":120149,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"a16f92df2b45416721af11725336a7c99eb443d140d031eb6f3e006f358ce06c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"98075403926bd0423dd7eef08b34baa59971b3abdbf618207cd74dea85b5f365","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0c0ae6c31ce49cec114c1027760517424f4e6eb46edfde84c0f840fd75e71f62","side":"left"},{"sibling":"06e2fc7934de0cbefb81373f07376fa684119b8f6ecc27ce218973c00fa7a4d8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1f27017dbcf23f45626b4312401ddea08d92bf69f9d8c8df4a77405dd31e3ad1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fe773cf8e22879373eb1acd8f4c6b5370e5c5117aa2b8e9356b5cb27d86da11b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fbc97c8ffc4e0529c02cda4ab186b044b09b474182fb9fbd8e687b59c97e08b2","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b1a469ecc2c62da181fb78fb052d1f4d059aafbe92dbb6d04682090381d419fd","side":"right"},{"sibling":"34e93c6f591cc4fb93a4c29771210eb73573b454d2c5329963f437f1309fe46f","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b9834433f5bd1deeaab4ced2b3bcc0d91d19763a5d0981fb299d124b63459eb3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"143f33d3924b3840fd6dd8ba12566fc35bf86189e663ef0ad4884d676f295e3a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b1ed99341c327c7c9ab2489f40af2547ab3b3b4b6a74fb684210164fb891a413","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6ee3be9bdfc9bee55d32f7dbb0075f02fe87d20887d563d3e300caf36b1b88c7","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8ccd9937a2c0d5c04044d07d1557791b7d07bb31eac41a39a675608d44b38f23","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3a5e69cf0803f4c91f3895ed7c9a95748fef240bec4422e167c05300f79f06c0","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f2817ab288b5324fe49770372c7a10f33f7cd11005f8d4c0a730316f5229dc98","side":"left"},{"sibling":"725fac972e772ca0dc598810ea1abc70df472f72d2d6ab8a0baee2b80e5d2f4c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"98fc57dfef8873b512edc8340f7181df57302bb96777625e072235c62d7c5895","side":"right"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":134292,"merkle_root":"77fc9c28fae777b81da5b495b3115474df6592dfac590333213d3bdf8b94a9b3","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260515T023701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-15T02:37:25Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"68107a834b00b24f5d4501e5ec727445311f132a486567ecc4c72a4e6dff24c8c21f2de3105293353ba5fdbe370d032819af6aa70f694e2e39b6af6737507009","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_06c45a5099bd259573e4c67ea3015861895fd2b3686a8fea784cf7dc07aacb35"}}