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We study a minimal probe: \"I want to wash my car. The car wash is 100 meters away. Should I walk or drive?\" Only drive works (the car must be at the car wash), yet models overwhelmingly recommend walking. (1) Behavioral reproduction: on Qwen3-8B across five system-prompt conditions (210 rollouts), the wrong commitment occurs in 85-100% of sampled rollouts per condition and 100% of greedy rollouts, in both thinking and non-thinking modes; a 4,096-token thinking budget does not repair it. (2) Preliminary activation-level evidence: probing hidden states with a pretrained, training-free activation oracle (no task-specific probe training) at positions before the answer text is emitted, \"walk\" read-outs exceed a neutral-context baseline (68% vs. 17%; walk-committing rollouts p=.005","title":"Committed Before Reasoning: Behavioral Reproduction and Preliminary Activation-Level Evidence of Answer Pre-Commitment in an Open-Weight LLM","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16451","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.16451v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Chat models sometimes commit to an answer and then produce reasoning that justifies it rather than deriving it -- even when the answer contradicts a task premise. We study a minimal probe: \"I want to wash my car. The car wash is 100 meters away. Should I walk or drive?\" Only drive works (the car must be at the car wash), yet models overwhelmingly recommend walking. (1) Behavioral reproduction: on Qwen3-8B across five system-prompt conditions (210 rollouts), the wrong commitment occurs in 85-100% of sampled rollouts per condition and 100% of greedy rollouts, in both thinking and non-thinking modes; a 4,096-token thinking budget does not repair it. (2) Preliminary activation-level evidence: probing hidden states with a pretrained, training-free activation oracle (no task-specific probe training) at positions before the answer text is emitted, \"walk\" read-outs exceed a neutral-context baseline (68% vs. 17%; walk-committing rollouts p=.005","title":"Committed Before Reasoning: Behavioral Reproduction and Preliminary Activation-Level Evidence of Answer Pre-Commitment in an Open-Weight LLM","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-21T04:43:35Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16451"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:211414913d5a8b097658b781e84ee012b412cabbb658a2dc5c024a58982bdc1963ef4ed9cb3a88a1175885016cc8f5a9a89a32615ab853ef490b364877dbda07","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-21T04:43:35Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16451"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"4da46512a6c3fe254a03cba037cd16dc01967504f4a12225372451c8f2f316a8","leaf_index":336693,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"2bf6d6766d9f46c39cf461e4a666b4c7316a8cf7d9c310061392201ba8a10eae","side":"left"},{"sibling":"59f973c30ee8b1ceb22ffc4aeb8d8c7b3974324dad70770df887f3311fc34890","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5953d3528594f5abf036d6343da80d5526cfe43d67be2ccb3208b398aa2764de","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e89984e105df0828eb2659766ca2153f5009d684744f865c0a3aadb1a47af343","side":"right"},{"sibling":"823ce37edc73270a3fc9043c32a81efb1e824a565a56b0b6d72cd0615b76a453","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c26453c782b8c69237d781f54fd9671c7f0e21b7ef05db28bfbe86785858825b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4ea1e5c2e49b1f5fcd3643e5f4d1677ae33031efab9d85f8e48a531d254974ce","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a4c41a614872a391d764732d35b746845ccfe3f2a51fe13e1f0e934d271e94f4","side":"right"},{"sibling":"bd233cee8c0876447824d86de33608c36e3a8e17dca0737155291ed768cf56d1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"7b927551b5db06b6571913b4e6792ffcce5291a3eca5a0df4a3b6e296271105f","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b77a0b5ae4607c8fe6ba73449d46b35076e3dedc0c82a2c65a05780d42a7bc2e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9eb5077edfb3dc553857d4794b925bfce117e0f8a1d049af5d0dd9026b470eef","side":"right"},{"sibling":"414b1a70fd1dcb25489a194714b97492b066684b15d0b7a48a176c4b9b5bc713","side":"right"},{"sibling":"21d66dd41003813f710b7617944f1bfba3258658a5d3370c21cad8f9e945bc99","side":"left"},{"sibling":"613f015699131eb89bd755dee67133be95af25cf5f16c1c8ce4b99d963b8dd86","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a729b574b1135956436ded5eef1fe8f08014ff6a0729749d307ab1bca93fcdc9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"77025bcb374a7ad74f520643e20a8ae1205a7ee78507b0beb93117760f1c29d3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4bf21052e085e8ac81f1dec1d2b310bd12bf948992de6177d12e9d2fda8d39f0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":337144,"merkle_root":"5e969cc01afa67e4dbe5d37b712cdb10f4aa1fd74404e02eab724cf487c8d6d9","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260721T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-21T05:38:38Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"5c0c1a8dd2793d787ccd5e49e8b4d70eed136352555518589f05c74be357fc171702e42a76c3a556d90e3d51ff36cb3d292aaac83c66566de7b943f318bda50c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_0bf345b12a1893e3dc880972d8e3db22ee2a6da0796b62d38c993283cbd87cd7"}}