{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_0c5317191ec2e0d1b36883a4c21bb2c4ba89de114687f6853004d1130c73a4a4","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":[],"calendar_attestations":[],"ots_url":"","stamped_at":"","status":"pending_next_stamp"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_0c5317191ec2e0d1b36883a4c21bb2c4ba89de114687f6853004d1130c73a4a4","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"3a399fe6086743c76d52da5a9a6e3efc4355a719eba0aa5bd4c9f1e9f8638b73","published":"Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"3a399fe6086743c76d52da5a9a6e3efc4355a719eba0aa5bd4c9f1e9f8638b73","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"3a399fe6086743c76d52da5a9a6e3efc4355a719eba0aa5bd4c9f1e9f8638b73","observed_at":"2026-06-01T04:43:13.859018Z","parent_run_hash":"8993bbc535dae8c9669e099af3624cb39166b8d9bbfd66f26ae5c338cbb21be2","published":"Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2510.00845v4 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to reverse-engineer model behaviors by identifying functional sub-networks. Yet, the scientific validity of these findings depends on their stability. In this work, we argue that circuit discovery is not a standalone task but a statistical estimation problem built upon causal mediation analysis (CMA). We uncover a fundamental instability at this base layer: exact, single-input CMA scores exhibit high intrinsic variance, implying that the causal effect of a component is a volatile random variable rather than a fixed property. We then demonstrate that circuit discovery pipelines inherit this variance and further amplify it. Fast approximation methods, such as Edge Attribution Patching and its successors, introduce additional estimation noise, while aggregating these noisy scores over datasets leads to fragile structural estimates. Consequently, small perturbations in input data or hyperparam","title":"Mechanistic Interpretability as Statistical Estimation: A Variance Analysis","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00845","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2510.00845v4 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to reverse-engineer model behaviors by identifying functional sub-networks. Yet, the scientific validity of these findings depends on their stability. In this work, we argue that circuit discovery is not a standalone task but a statistical estimation problem built upon causal mediation analysis (CMA). We uncover a fundamental instability at this base layer: exact, single-input CMA scores exhibit high intrinsic variance, implying that the causal effect of a component is a volatile random variable rather than a fixed property. We then demonstrate that circuit discovery pipelines inherit this variance and further amplify it. Fast approximation methods, such as Edge Attribution Patching and its successors, introduce additional estimation noise, while aggregating these noisy scores over datasets leads to fragile structural estimates. Consequently, small perturbations in input data or hyperparam","title":"Mechanistic Interpretability as Statistical Estimation: A Variance Analysis","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-01T04:43:13Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00845"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:ac4130793c273d11b6c73b04f20f49ed95f9f4490a704229242ac7fc168b98e6df70d21c84a202ec5820389f1938749cd95f6c6b7ccf10b3fd5ea936e9007b0e","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-01T04:43:13Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00845"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"465d400f512055462a86a114d21df4e7067f517ddbc9e46e70fa93e9babf16db","leaf_index":164067,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"aca32b700f91e4b5b22d5645d04ac54aecdd3474a47e3720a25f0282a7bb8129","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4eff24e31eca31cbcf14c46d52fef6fca9c1fb9bac491e4bb6ff8212f78663d4","side":"left"},{"sibling":"9aa8380b44f0a48908ebf4469093d7c827b18e000a3480cfb9bf4b3c70d248ca","side":"right"},{"sibling":"54b0b87a5011fd65df89fec44aa77daad949eb29b85c3a099d80fc2854a82268","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8cff3415648ba43a1988e535a95873cc8b2d875c38185a08a6ed38ba81c2285c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"00b3a57d032cb074589dcb96bd224985cac733fa139c680fd4be9b239121ad84","side":"left"},{"sibling":"6b9f5e8f735af934c2b99502e36dfe0c82b536ef2c88dafbb196d5ab8771a38f","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c2ed258674acbec09c8c9dbf15c89e6fc50854c6eb5f8d42b378de7db248641a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"86fede29e507d01bfe35484a1579149e8e99b3527ff48559423f6056d11af46a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fc601f0745c37fc5f7c249300e654db05d61bb9059885eeb0b0a5047b5d28408","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6ed9290cdae063f13bfeb71c4c5440595cabb61fd4b39225b9cc913ffb336dd7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a0446b923d1ce90021e78edff07f6bfc7cc2a1326a565c5f0786b82a24dd0a2a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e598fd53912c30e58ca8e58d7d8a338fe0f2ecb63fdd99225bc703c499c948ec","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fc4873333221ec8167697f75b6f6a8a08491a8cf18952defb65fb6d4958fa5e7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"05c8a827da2a05549ee3250310777009120c687885816bf6c7c74801bfaa346d","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5ea2f2dc9f046df723b6bd9932d61a9a3d80a76e79ce1b939b3d93ff79b5a91c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ce41d9b82f34b16efd653dfb3552acc4e2512939e47903e5fc979fbed00c5764","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":164217,"merkle_root":"a1098816aea1b60b8fe37b62410469bc5024a2c335bbec4f6ef2add7875dbdf2","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260601T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-01T05:37:41Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"d7f91db1d54b9495c499440c2828f4bd53360555391ce6e25adea5183bc1fa0f697d80708a099d0b0429e6f8cb6c71e7fccf82acb3c84481149974fb26074708","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_0c5317191ec2e0d1b36883a4c21bb2c4ba89de114687f6853004d1130c73a4a4"}}