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Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the nee","title":"The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28190","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2606.28190v2 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the nee","title":"The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-01T04:43:38Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28190"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:db6979a07c107f196545301ddd05dfc29662998984118aab69410879e4ab51550674cfa5a79e609aff53d8e948ae05b18451c69f281e0a8a7203ee8d992a6d01","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-01T04:43:38Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28190"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"d6ec8fd540b92498048fa900df34750f465bd0ad6c149f596250e4023840b2b5","leaf_index":268743,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"444fddce191f682fb7c6eb26d98c7c2f90615ef5cbd6242231e704eccab4317d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"3524e523800a4dcd3b3ce7d8f2db354d60be3414edc1fd61653271a990d1a0ca","side":"left"},{"sibling":"aab114685e1247a2d4c2538aa14c8b2fc532a64538e0b78086784191f8088e2b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"001891d9904c3cd2f74cfe107f66930da9a9fe6147f32335845ecbfca1790aa7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5d30b2c725c242d07ac97315eb5c15225d5fef58d04aab7a971c6517e5c4608e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"581ac13a69d2a844d7ebc3aa78465e48ac6e1b25b81a7c6d15de35e48972dd96","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6facb39677df92abd0fd5d1029d55ed9744e6a739c5386cc9c961d92a8dac47e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"58c3799598a549d54786b91e80a9c8daea4edcb3c27437b6b16ccadf6dc2889e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4b14e8ccae46b588748944ffaf410222f66cebc2ac58d936cbe16847b7be9508","side":"left"},{"sibling":"bbd9a20451913e8c7b910f616d5661d9b281a94af70d201ba50b3112d429521b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"85af80e45748c1e0da1e2f42d9d66da8996016888a034f20eb17ff0a73b69eab","side":"right"},{"sibling":"4575fde969d1d9a2984cc01a37ac8441238f74527d42874272dc5582dadebb4f","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f536de281672cbf0b583a3dc46faef1de2823b72bd9265c7b60e889131cc268d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"95b8b0f67237052a17c41fa8cbdce2b79bcb5aeeba3fdb239d4c4497e598115d","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c2f351f771cee329448890504d9436792ba482e50250ca9a19289311131f96c8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c39bfb2e911ca37ae997690bfc04128ae32e6806ee1cb3908781a7e6685022a0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a101b4c60ef6854ac3d750eef02d8e2e06c153284b5ecb7111302f97eb129797","side":"right"},{"sibling":"eae2a3de5cb35455ad60125e196cfadaba8a590c53146e95028469f53f70349c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":268860,"merkle_root":"d098f25810d0569730b6c0e170d57f329a70359d483b47874b5f2fc51d23de65","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260701T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-01T05:38:05Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"64f37f0e3df0556baa55b924a736cab8005643fa0ab65b503f22407de30eab293e6e0bd62904270fda38d05084bb350c8c0d0aadb2c5a6bae5f1c54598e6d30c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_0d15c633807ff41356e0a05f44db9e99ebab17fad0b30b8b78bc30a043117b36"}}