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To address this, we introduce \\textit{Mini-Mafia}, a four-player simplification of the social deduction game Mafia in which a fixed night phase reduces the game to a single critical exchange among a mafioso, a detective, and a villager. In this setting, we show that the mafia win-rate $p$ is predicted by the analytical formula $\\text{logit}(p) = v \\times (m - d)$, where $m$, $d$, and $v$ represent the mafioso's deception, the detective's disclosure, and the villager's detection capabilities. We turn this analytical framework into the \\textit{Mini-Mafia Benchmark}, where Bayesian inference over gameplay data","title":"Deceive, Detect, and Disclose: Large Language Models Play Mini-Mafia","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23023","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2509.23023v3 Announce Type: replace \nAbstract: Large language models are increasingly deployed in multi-agent settings whose outcomes hinge on social intelligence, motivating evaluations of their interactive capabilities; yet existing studies remain overwhelmingly empirical, leaving us without a theoretical understanding of how agent interactions determine collective outcomes. To address this, we introduce \\textit{Mini-Mafia}, a four-player simplification of the social deduction game Mafia in which a fixed night phase reduces the game to a single critical exchange among a mafioso, a detective, and a villager. In this setting, we show that the mafia win-rate $p$ is predicted by the analytical formula $\\text{logit}(p) = v \\times (m - d)$, where $m$, $d$, and $v$ represent the mafioso's deception, the detective's disclosure, and the villager's detection capabilities. We turn this analytical framework into the \\textit{Mini-Mafia Benchmark}, where Bayesian inference over gameplay data","title":"Deceive, Detect, and Disclose: Large Language Models Play Mini-Mafia","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-15T04:43:17Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23023"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:a103d691cfaf5ea9dc85b07effdb2badc6ae7ee4ff2f391e7d22e41b409743fbb49f94ee27e6366fcbd941351baf3a047d2f0d665afc8866f853b984a4ed4401","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-15T04:43:17Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23023"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"2a63b61302801651803df13f55fd2e0dd9b8d3b0545e3a36bfc34e295ba0face","leaf_index":134686,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"2002a0910ae4276cc490287b53f6ad60e9916ad9ec8de67538c5b8833e9b19e2","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9bcbe8c155f116465073f92556544ba634a22a25e270a98abf6ae9c6359fb62d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"122bf9d3b130ac7dc2c1b12c09f8e2e64846f368b60904e54947af57416d4bec","side":"left"},{"sibling":"555d88f0af32b4e4b6aa48f5e28c29d9842d9aad9d7b345f09259f14ee17e732","side":"left"},{"sibling":"bed02182385a9a1ea96260612655f90a7cfffda12c0023f387b0f235b61bf408","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ccf3ee4ca5cc4d59521386cf1a31e9f523148c2cc92f5ee2750b82f33475d591","side":"right"},{"sibling":"bca4711cdb0765a339b3db05a85ed17fb8e65a24e2b58309e8137da50874715e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d8ac22bfe982d5dc7f00879b0b1dfae8f4e95a38a6242933cbebb3b7271d5704","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a17a0eaa87574a308e2c02cf125072b9e69566b9e8d6d2e64a02880192b885d5","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6bd0475fd3a73322a4f73095c96b072de89e462ce5839161aa552e0208619bce","side":"left"},{"sibling":"36672459e5ed50c64ee1842b69cb6d2eb682c2a04844555be8d124257571994a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"727783827652adfa99c455bd80a01bfb33836228e51068b4f654ef3da468ca69","side":"left"},{"sibling":"623194cd30880ed223e306737fdb111aa0d781751bfc47553c404a6af6aad2c4","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fc8f53ed42756907fb79ee19a4ed09f72c560e5302b3d98198b96bf1da635a4a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d6607539da7ba39ec68be2d12f27ed6768766c745e3120fd915f88c5e288e07c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b63408a424d27cd6a75e0fb155e69a58a328f41e9cb9dba1eddef9a5289cc7fd","side":"right"},{"sibling":"356fb36a4e188f03d7a05c54cd8789bdd40eda454b9bc9560f667acc08e6c4e0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":134886,"merkle_root":"c6c7ae28c065bced89e7f844216b073f1a7cc4b378db0d41a98bcd21b28066db","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260515T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-15T05:37:26Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"5a3978c26017daf4104adbb3e1c3099c5750157acbfc7242ece1815dc6740fe08a690291ce0afe42011e20cc565b5ebe64ec016bf658b5bab563a63337985c05","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_0fff696447e81ab8a97ff8667f7ab1d6a8aad2b2f874c8fbbbb8f559c9cd78e7"}}