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We test whether OpenVLA feedforward activations contain linearly decodable information about near term task failure in LIBERO manipulation rollouts. The policy is fixed throughout. We log internal activations during execution and fit lightweight monitors after the rollouts are collected. Occlusion is the main controlled stress test. It reduces OpenVLA success from $57\\%$ to $17\\%$ over $100$ episodes per condition. Under this shift, a logistic probe at layer 16 reaches AUROC $0.972$ and AUPRC $0.352$ for predicting failure within a $15$ step horizon. It outperforms both a mean difference direction and an action disagreement baseline. A sparse layer sweep finds uneven decodability across depth: layer 16 is strongest among the tested layers, layer 8 remains informative","title":"Early Warning Signals for OpenVLA Failure under Visual Distribution Shift","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29699","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2606.29699v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Vision Language Action models combine perception, language grounding, and control in a single policy, but their failures are hard to diagnose once visual conditions shift. We test whether OpenVLA feedforward activations contain linearly decodable information about near term task failure in LIBERO manipulation rollouts. The policy is fixed throughout. We log internal activations during execution and fit lightweight monitors after the rollouts are collected. Occlusion is the main controlled stress test. It reduces OpenVLA success from $57\\%$ to $17\\%$ over $100$ episodes per condition. Under this shift, a logistic probe at layer 16 reaches AUROC $0.972$ and AUPRC $0.352$ for predicting failure within a $15$ step horizon. It outperforms both a mean difference direction and an action disagreement baseline. A sparse layer sweep finds uneven decodability across depth: layer 16 is strongest among the tested layers, layer 8 remains informative","title":"Early Warning Signals for OpenVLA Failure under Visual Distribution Shift","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-30T04:43:04Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29699"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:223a0b27b5bbe6ec6bc3d9a0273e09bff53abf4ed0226b460a8fdf10afc086739a8325a651f9ee510dd38dfe1bdd1703bf62244fe67cb217a6eb7df597110e06","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-30T04:43:04Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29699"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"993dbac257ac0f968b7cb888381d49a61e5965b9d686a2a81f06d26766c58955","leaf_index":264932,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"7930429de8495c42874d62a09bc37c37aec9fd29472f4e8d5efbb361039e57e9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"36ce18bd67181efdfb2282ce631d82e000ba424f715ffb2aacdd063e7df11523","side":"right"},{"sibling":"df4c2496269257880448fe384ba7e0544fe3514dd3d44e76f8fbd6232fd943f8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ef0f291051f41947fa8736d9d27fce62cce9c100f18948dc055a68dd4de962ba","side":"right"},{"sibling":"395e839fd7c24afb5097882bd1356f77198222306c5ecf398c59ef0bc659997a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5afa719fed6bf20458cb57f93005e799606deddcec7186b00097a0b05d5361d6","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4330bdf65b90bf9ea57b2b83a3c8e878c009cfc7f28a23b0d78d0b53451c71a6","side":"left"},{"sibling":"86ba07f5dfcbf22e044b5aa0ecc15cd2f29de9218e54da603c4ffe753c522516","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5767f14b55df4212d25ae2f52b8f3d4abff2555c65ba62935ed6cb0a8e617b43","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1549a8883ab3267f958dc2624919e40c65c82958b8005967ed6a4da1247da0ad","side":"left"},{"sibling":"23994bf0974e5c9c7f63a61b4f0a48b0ca756a4adc34a8f85f878e774c37dfbe","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f9b4bed84fa6990c71ad2887c91bda183001f05f6b648f21d1273045a26b11fd","side":"left"},{"sibling":"173d2dc4b29ee04ea41d6d0ebc334c4bc2d46e7ee4230c94765413f24fb4bc42","side":"right"},{"sibling":"112461f7c0ec411116fb5c6c90fe95cea9d8f188b9fe08afe25a837ac02d0071","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ea9488204352c49db8f7daf05eefcd7628ecf9413830346674801a99d0654a94","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6261c13b9922cb657f10d1e5d36ec15d8771cf8766e36c61dcbffb7bed57e396","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fa19aa3faf287618b820bcfceebb366152ad521dd20ef9f51e977816663e448b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c32f943406b62d1fc59b7f7e243492174c8e1caba8c8a2705f86c773315736e0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":265374,"merkle_root":"9636001ecab173cb6af10dc7c71eb14585daa62f9c0a6f027046f05633156891","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260630T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-30T05:38:03Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"6d4b8fd9b9da856cbb5fba7540877c6a63fa18a5ec3eaf28dc4d6d1c64921c9c0565f8c95f4b7aec0e7744fd7754844f051baf863db708cad768765b416a7b0c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_1ff587e99c275c783ef97307b45f3d0d246fef07d8013a16cb915261454ac7c4"}}