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Numerical results come from scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators; human-supervised AI agents supported the July 20 evidence-integrity revision through literature retrieval, separately tasked critique, artifact reconciliation, documentation, and source packaging, not trading decisions. The strongest later-period evidence, conditional on extensive predecessor search, is negative: an unchanged ten-pair mandatory-daily selector lost 6.72\\% over 19 July cycles at an assumed 31-bps completed-cycle cost, with 3 wins and 16 losses. In short model-specific July evaluations, the validation-selected local-minimum policy returned -1.79\\%, while the local-maximum sell-to-cash/re-entry policy underperformed continuous holding by 2.80\\%; the","title":"Predictive Extrema, Unprofitable Policies: An AI-Assisted Audit of Candle-Based Binance Spot Timing Models","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19453","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.19453v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs. Numerical results come from scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators; human-supervised AI agents supported the July 20 evidence-integrity revision through literature retrieval, separately tasked critique, artifact reconciliation, documentation, and source packaging, not trading decisions. The strongest later-period evidence, conditional on extensive predecessor search, is negative: an unchanged ten-pair mandatory-daily selector lost 6.72\\% over 19 July cycles at an assumed 31-bps completed-cycle cost, with 3 wins and 16 losses. In short model-specific July evaluations, the validation-selected local-minimum policy returned -1.79\\%, while the local-maximum sell-to-cash/re-entry policy underperformed continuous holding by 2.80\\%; the","title":"Predictive Extrema, Unprofitable Policies: An AI-Assisted Audit of Candle-Based Binance Spot Timing Models","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-23T04:43:18Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19453"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:75bbd864e4a14aefb3a3f3c567198b90e8a6c613ac7276591278cc398aabea7c1e30b954425bfb67f66df7c5067af36ce294a8c42f727238615b889f2edfa802","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-23T04:43:18Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19453"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"0d7a8c0b34edf253b891c44338f37457eb45d753d8e52e96e28606cb05d7ae81","leaf_index":343665,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"69e45b90b6597cc7213a1c5938a183e6a7e04be311ca9bba87ba2ba07b351c8d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"91de313a3134c58f4802cc731155a6c87c06c2ba580d0ed9c3e819d2f4385195","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5f0d578d8d934edf6f57a6451836ec08f5d0f99ef74c77bf125594f8792840da","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8a692fccb0b1804a6cb1dca583ded05d082ddfbb71a234ad8012433371abdb39","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e7eea5cfc65cced99ac4473d2a0eb5e257e5fd0c2df6e899a3def65a8a124f96","side":"left"},{"sibling":"099254e33d9098db07bde3a9a97ce251a7497619e6b26704d223c16f1370afea","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f1bdad0b747ea102cc58af1ef43ba9823c47e1e8da7945feed779a074a032485","side":"left"},{"sibling":"51ebf5c79aac8726e953f8d1f4d9fb442a2733a55a74c3ce7be5e84fcff3f592","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6ecdcc1e2fb6ab44777fffbb7c8297d723018c63aac9d90c7a1bbebe728d84cf","side":"right"},{"sibling":"93d7d8e0e882d05b2a15bb707a824979a0427907eb47e687c712906674a0d345","side":"left"},{"sibling":"92219a3ef58cd145d94f071b0b9396cec3707812b02a8c7c63f2d0e22340552b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4eb402d67bd4bf583b0434363061166fe259c34cc6c42adb32dcfbff0a9f5767","side":"left"},{"sibling":"2dd9cb2521044ee7c6b74f2315e0a0253b8df0d04a7b810bbbbe7da5a9788769","side":"left"},{"sibling":"21d66dd41003813f710b7617944f1bfba3258658a5d3370c21cad8f9e945bc99","side":"left"},{"sibling":"941f71d7ce3990a507b8f485de3f872a51d0e9a8c59405d76c2ae6f4a6af494a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6281b6f7a93c44e3c4895bc65cfcb6f2be24dd725f4f46540ec022a6e215f4e8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"77025bcb374a7ad74f520643e20a8ae1205a7ee78507b0beb93117760f1c29d3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"6baede22892163664bb2e4d92cf75e6b290761533a6c39491c3afd89bb3a0252","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":343944,"merkle_root":"afab58f71597d393a7a61b857dac2eacb72fd1c04cd1432c2622d7b19309dffd","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260723T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-23T05:38:39Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"1a58fdc6367d0c86f83d2385be748e0800a64bcf9987c92fadca53deda009cd390d2070302c2b6e44841febfd864637c323ba12c7a1e9ae58fdf2a0cf546ac01","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_20049d8786cf4c596ee429f1c40cc6edaccf94a41a3d13777831b45f12da45e1"}}