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Here, we evaluate an LLM Jury, composed of three frontier AI models, for scoring 3334 diagnoses on 300 real-world low- and middle-income country (LMIC) hospital cases. Both LLM- and clinician-generated diagnoses are scored against expert panel diagnoses across four dimensions: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, clinical reasoning, and negative treatment risk. The LLM Jury scores are compared with expert and independent re-scoring panel scores to assess error metrics, inter-rater agreement, severe-risk errors, and the effect of post hoc calibration using isotonic regression. In our data, we find that: (i) the uncalibrated LLM Jury scores preserve ordinal agreement with the expert clinician panel scores, but are systematically lower; (ii) the probability of severe-risk err","title":"Can LLMs Accurately Score Medical Diagnoses and Clinical Reasoning?","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.14892","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2604.14892v3 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Evaluating medical AI systems using expert clinician panels is costly and slow, motivating the use of large language models (LLMs) as alternative adjudicators. Here, we evaluate an LLM Jury, composed of three frontier AI models, for scoring 3334 diagnoses on 300 real-world low- and middle-income country (LMIC) hospital cases. Both LLM- and clinician-generated diagnoses are scored against expert panel diagnoses across four dimensions: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, clinical reasoning, and negative treatment risk. The LLM Jury scores are compared with expert and independent re-scoring panel scores to assess error metrics, inter-rater agreement, severe-risk errors, and the effect of post hoc calibration using isotonic regression. In our data, we find that: (i) the uncalibrated LLM Jury scores preserve ordinal agreement with the expert clinician panel scores, but are systematically lower; (ii) the probability of severe-risk err","title":"Can LLMs Accurately Score Medical Diagnoses and Clinical Reasoning?","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-15T04:43:09Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.14892"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:10f21a8281542bca84f5d48be5544a32f050a29683947c5e64f111dafa76d7f67eedfb57ba5eb92d7df059434d9a60a0f410166e5d5000a13b44af50b7008703","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-15T04:43:09Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.14892"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"fe52d3354abb210e37681bd987757116e5823b34744837d98e0813641de2e99c","leaf_index":230153,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"f2a1412d5e4b69154372423dee4f4a76e8070f03986d092ccad90f2f35d20c35","side":"left"},{"sibling":"40bee9168092c930cb5a6f09a834906ce013f9e74586ef87a1ff90945b3fa928","side":"right"},{"sibling":"cf35e8c3135a106fa48c8a9bca3450b263fd15c7fae755b88e34c1f3aecfca4e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b0fc552ec3a8f8bc4ad0c9392f62b19e3c2a843da94b0dcbc5485c63580e86b6","side":"left"},{"sibling":"05c407a8412443954bb52311d95a1e3651bbd3dfa524ca4796585dec94df6a2f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"430e8ffbeeb70eaf2485dfbe508fd2bd77e31b8b2a5c813d940490016761d859","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a614bf836a660bcfb12080603c3b0e05178718e35625a1678b12d5a40d44e0f7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0d60a870c104823e0ebbac1aad5395bcb88f28b6928636cce19a16b0cfa21564","side":"right"},{"sibling":"03ebe4791d56166247160f6ee7788c15745bdd7e274c62ec21b2438669941587","side":"left"},{"sibling":"74897e850164dddc689c3c65b33f9bae0268ab0bf429867a4e193d9b9b685040","side":"left"},{"sibling":"bde25d7e94e64717e426a97f6fcb4907e92b5c61fc89d92d7e0947a2249c3f6b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d10d772a4984cae00e65ab24af21d1d260e475bbaae3f17871859eb705bd3999","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e79159853f2f35ddae8e3247d515e433c534277b287d65bbd77ae989aa4992fa","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3054319f1840cce0eaaf0bc4b1ae38e5bf8b6210927d924a750775cc7d77cca6","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0fd8b5059f279c4a4a6688de2472fdbc25543fee183df19b21dacca880354cff","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a04392fb9f2a3a620840e3b3fecd93d12e6d224e481c162389d8ae64e7194599","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c300cf0154c136afc09b1702a0be98f4ba5b6dc5cf57e8cc714ec1eaf4196eff","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":232015,"merkle_root":"62bfb7809bb55667ad7eeebdb48267b9b2c1ee89bb808ea1e6d3a814a15aa402","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260617T133701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-17T13:39:59Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"930a3563c643cc7518d048b12a1f5392a96a5edce49533ba0a56f11b6cc69319bb1c800aacc46b52a6941c4d05dae255a45cac757d6093c971b96852c24f140e","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_24490d128c5837f4a70c2b3fecf079ed546ff63ec387062695faa9de4e3a7854"}}