{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_2837008e9c2bdf3a6609fb4b1fff62e695cb05f062e0777813d39b051e953e86","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":[],"calendar_attestations":[],"ots_url":"","stamped_at":"","status":"pending_next_stamp"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_2837008e9c2bdf3a6609fb4b1fff62e695cb05f062e0777813d39b051e953e86","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"033b31fde2fc1ea0f6b16bee3f104d5252bd76612604d5507739127aa98a6147","published":"Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"033b31fde2fc1ea0f6b16bee3f104d5252bd76612604d5507739127aa98a6147","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"033b31fde2fc1ea0f6b16bee3f104d5252bd76612604d5507739127aa98a6147","observed_at":"2026-06-06T04:43:19.193968Z","parent_run_hash":"550d5b02674822f43975c282be668ca76a4d9c7c957eb1601ba8b07dcb67715e","published":"Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2606.05692v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes. Existing datasets either rely on real-world observations without ground-truth counterfactuals or on simplified simulations that fail to capture complex causal dynamics. To address this gap, we develop a large-scale benchmark for counterfactual prediction in epidemic time series under dynamic interventions. Unlike existing benchmarks, it supports static and time-varying treatments, as well as both single-policy and multi-policy intervention settings, enabling evaluation of causal inference methods across a broad range of causal inference scenarios. Leveraging a calibrated agent-based model grounded in real-world demographic, mobility, epidemiological, and policy data, we generate realistic counterfactual trajectories across more than 150 U.S. countie","title":"Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05692","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2606.05692v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes. Existing datasets either rely on real-world observations without ground-truth counterfactuals or on simplified simulations that fail to capture complex causal dynamics. To address this gap, we develop a large-scale benchmark for counterfactual prediction in epidemic time series under dynamic interventions. Unlike existing benchmarks, it supports static and time-varying treatments, as well as both single-policy and multi-policy intervention settings, enabling evaluation of causal inference methods across a broad range of causal inference scenarios. Leveraging a calibrated agent-based model grounded in real-world demographic, mobility, epidemiological, and policy data, we generate realistic counterfactual trajectories across more than 150 U.S. countie","title":"Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-06T04:43:19Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05692"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:64f59600d3c1fcf5024251d2e20b6bd9c77ca9cea9da1e61bf07e62c2c14c7b61d6315c316eafe9e543cbd66f6c7845682b14e76d9b0c4983d78b8341c2e6905","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-06T04:43:19Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05692"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"b623e68449389bab426394825db9c1e6599d710e61ff329acc80f1ae29d1d28e","leaf_index":219323,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"720279658847bb1b2616458157b4a81f49f8a91f88275cf2d511ec94a941ff11","side":"left"},{"sibling":"991a163bc6161fd3abe3d3d5263ce11cb7cfbed5408a1ce22f12a77f268ec5a1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"cba033ecc9ca2635cf5125e3a583ae2d09f882daea8c908df0c255c9e057eebb","side":"right"},{"sibling":"72d2ab13568c6c4771069bd4e0bbe064ccae355f7e108144e6dfcd87a764dfbc","side":"left"},{"sibling":"303b9c9a50ca5fd47b4eb21f5f177494dc4b6f7a12056d87bb987ae218c782c3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f69ada99b5a94148388de7652a5f01876fe5f7566a5bed0f5d64334a1f5a20fa","side":"left"},{"sibling":"10ee7485d3bc0c0562fa4cef6f34003c37b4601cd92eeec5d9ba5e84860493f3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"db337ff23246be63404145882725c137b40795d3b3a9316f0a9b49a930255017","side":"left"},{"sibling":"bd0dfa76bed61a2c5e95135a7304a2b8c4fd064958dbf768664232880d0abaa5","side":"right"},{"sibling":"84d2509eab51047589142ed6da8c496305d2fbcbe148e0e6755163db2c7a4bc4","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9e3ea17e834fab022f2eabcfedb8ea0ac95c1f9fb57edc5004dded68522d3c9e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"41d58fea95a95071715ee23ef8bcd15f5867a3639da28e62a0641bc95eb83094","side":"left"},{"sibling":"27ad9d6a9ab792d708709017242a61b9ca519da4e035f87a342811aae221d000","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5f303e2a7840c60038ff2d035b1cd911feefb0fba880de2d737c6671ace594d4","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b2590791b920ca2a4ed39de126d2c0b1a10d9e7e62f572f12425f214e767b6e1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"1a61eadbf0217d063ab78291ccafdc0c92907f7d6ccdc3357534ef89f07d78ae","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c300cf0154c136afc09b1702a0be98f4ba5b6dc5cf57e8cc714ec1eaf4196eff","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":219672,"merkle_root":"d3e32d3a61ca02ce6b1f0b2db86721107770b250e8a5bf762a2c225d2f03c870","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260606T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-06T05:38:35Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"dab214c2d4d857f01383c8e93a521a774b1aba60eaee5677d4e43e4074f0342b2c6a9b9bfcff0eba74f7ac81fcb490dd0e43727979c1a7e8979c7e11547fb101","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_2837008e9c2bdf3a6609fb4b1fff62e695cb05f062e0777813d39b051e953e86"}}