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This shaped retrieval systems to optimize for finding and ranking more relevant documents, but not keeping results clean and minimal, as the human was the final filter. However, LLMs have changed that by lacking this filtering ability.\n  To address this, we introduce Bits-over-Random (BoR), a chance-corrected measure of retrieval selectivity that reveals when high success rates mask random-level performance. We measure selectivity as $BoR = \\log_{2}\\left(\\frac{\\mathrm{P}_{obs}}{\\mathrm{P}_{rand}}\\right)$, where $\\mathrm{P}_{rand}$ is the hypergeometric baseline for the chosen success rule (here, coverage: $ \\geq1 $ relevant in top-$K$).\n  On the 20 Newsgroups dataset, BM25 and SPLADE both report $>99$% success at $K=100$ (coverage), yet $BoR \\approx 0$, indicati","title":"The 99% Success Paradox: When Near-Perfect Retrieval Equals Random Selection","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18857","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.18857v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: For most of the history of information retrieval (IR), search results were designed for human consumers who could scan, filter, and discard irrelevant information on their own. This shaped retrieval systems to optimize for finding and ranking more relevant documents, but not keeping results clean and minimal, as the human was the final filter. However, LLMs have changed that by lacking this filtering ability.\n  To address this, we introduce Bits-over-Random (BoR), a chance-corrected measure of retrieval selectivity that reveals when high success rates mask random-level performance. We measure selectivity as $BoR = \\log_{2}\\left(\\frac{\\mathrm{P}_{obs}}{\\mathrm{P}_{rand}}\\right)$, where $\\mathrm{P}_{rand}$ is the hypergeometric baseline for the chosen success rule (here, coverage: $ \\geq1 $ relevant in top-$K$).\n  On the 20 Newsgroups dataset, BM25 and SPLADE both report $>99$% success at $K=100$ (coverage), yet $BoR \\approx 0$, indicati","title":"The 99% Success Paradox: When Near-Perfect Retrieval Equals Random Selection","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18857"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:27a5b9b1e1f700df07481e8d3b7dbab200188f5a469ceb745089400e7a29cc56d8be0b3fdd526f67a26f9bf90a13441b13b26d5d8003b46e21e42b7f2be9380e","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18857"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"49e93fa5755d871953c27b6c7dabf54d71d7d0f6b9640546e48e93f70a27c6d0","leaf_index":145020,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"3bbb64bb6019be9b409c4142a10603083d902ebf88044182521350570d8d2463","side":"right"},{"sibling":"97923b3550245f3c026c627e6201c2e33adc0b9759a39f4aee634345ac12c74a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"59857d1e8f7f504e805e017c45f238b080677bda8b94266b8fece338c130fd49","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8eca650d020d9ffc40f976b2ac15abd3278cbed7dd838d045c4735294e324802","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fee9eb709e441260d34f3083e899913a496d5e4ad4f51753737be777901bfa0a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5efc60a8437bb8dfc7d20976dabe21eacc357a19aa672a53914e2792ef2fa629","side":"left"},{"sibling":"41f0af342418ef1081b5d968b56fe8290cf77b51073587d5abca55a1dcf5d23b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5c26ec91378ced2564bd7218068bacda3ade3a0517e2dc081e9d169a340044ba","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9db04d2181fb869f16a5baf7dcfe999cc93a7e9beef8493d0cc71f57470fe5e1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1526885f19d1fadf6955cf519dbc4e62d593a4bba99d741e8c301740a7068233","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3a7d5c07f161682d61bd453ffc02ecdf87cfeda70f986d6650017f9d2d6b265","side":"left"},{"sibling":"edbc49f08e5b92291934c05c9e6efd270a6b0698d8d2fa474006366027dfe098","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3e4df6e7457cecbf36f350375e72dcab336a3984422e4c406ef809e4e2944e96","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8f4c0fbe56b6c010fbb8c782ebcd478079bb3f991d8704e2534209a075d9163c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"be08fedc4e72a6fb56606f66812fae7317e09690b9acb18385f4ab117a981238","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0534329a7475dc9df51998c83c16892126679dade0fa34182f21e869599386c7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2d24720928ead0e7670650eb55f558c4f20e4c18df376f47ba72cfa8cf0ed344","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":147301,"merkle_root":"08903d7159c3b38eeeeafc09eab15139ea417f1d94f02f1fbc87296b37db840a","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260521T183701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-21T18:37:33Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"905f2924632dfa2970c8690285f5b5d4a1d891d0e0ef1cbc404ebec2fd937215ac768e16f0a9f28b18977a55ae0bfd226db6833ae7ef588729054117d2da7303","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_2d302e99509d4e380959e8e8775c35fada83b9520f390b357492106ba21139d2"}}