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Existing methods mainly rely on length penalties or early-exit strategies; however, the former may degrade accuracy and induce underthinking, whereas the latter assumes that substantial portions of reasoning traces can be safely truncated. To obtain a compression signal without these limitations, we revisit the training dynamics of existing compression methods. We observe that the length--accuracy correlation is initially negative but continually increases during compression, indicating that shorter responses are initially more likely to be correct but gradually lose this property as the policy moves toward underthinking. Based on this observation, we formalize overthinking: a negative correlation indicates an overthinking regime, while a positive one indicates underthinking. 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We observe that the length--accuracy correlation is initially negative but continually increases during compression, indicating that shorter responses are initially more likely to be correct but gradually lose this property as the policy moves toward underthinking. Based on this observation, we formalize overthinking: a negative correlation indicates an overthinking regime, while a positive one indicates underthinking. 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