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In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are rarely satisfied in practice, and achieving reliable UQ typically requires costly resampling or post-hoc calibration. To address these issues, we introduce Quantile-free Prediction Interval GNN (QpiGNN), a framework that builds on quantile regression (QR) to enable GNN-based UQ by directly optimizing coverage and interval width without requiring quantile inputs or post-processing. QpiGNN employs a dual-head architecture that decouples prediction and uncertainty, and is trained with label-only supervision through a quantile-free joint loss. This design allows efficient training and yields robust prediction intervals, with theoretical guarantees of asymptotic coverage and near-optimal width und","title":"Quantile-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Graph Neural Networks","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04847","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.04847v2 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are rarely satisfied in practice, and achieving reliable UQ typically requires costly resampling or post-hoc calibration. To address these issues, we introduce Quantile-free Prediction Interval GNN (QpiGNN), a framework that builds on quantile regression (QR) to enable GNN-based UQ by directly optimizing coverage and interval width without requiring quantile inputs or post-processing. QpiGNN employs a dual-head architecture that decouples prediction and uncertainty, and is trained with label-only supervision through a quantile-free joint loss. This design allows efficient training and yields robust prediction intervals, with theoretical guarantees of asymptotic coverage and near-optimal width und","title":"Quantile-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Graph Neural Networks","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-15T04:43:09Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04847"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:57d3cd64e68f37cf6a23b89b7be0c09684b8e73b284c23a949b808d4fea6773a4eee96223558e2260d4740b1bb9dd9c215c0da1972e2c67cdcf7eec774b3eb07","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-15T04:43:09Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04847"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"778540e14b38fc0698f531a76ce6da5e439eb776c1872faa90a1c0ca7151c4b2","leaf_index":230156,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"71455ecc1c2935e8079efcf350e29e2c9516c5006c59217a9e2077a834cc7ff1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f9a1602408c6fa157cf7defd912e52b5e243ffcd0d95364cfbd664c19b50dd6c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1849d5e88a079560e101c82cd1a76dbe6482f414455a848eda56614f34b2bcb2","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b0fc552ec3a8f8bc4ad0c9392f62b19e3c2a843da94b0dcbc5485c63580e86b6","side":"left"},{"sibling":"05c407a8412443954bb52311d95a1e3651bbd3dfa524ca4796585dec94df6a2f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"430e8ffbeeb70eaf2485dfbe508fd2bd77e31b8b2a5c813d940490016761d859","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a614bf836a660bcfb12080603c3b0e05178718e35625a1678b12d5a40d44e0f7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0d60a870c104823e0ebbac1aad5395bcb88f28b6928636cce19a16b0cfa21564","side":"right"},{"sibling":"03ebe4791d56166247160f6ee7788c15745bdd7e274c62ec21b2438669941587","side":"left"},{"sibling":"74897e850164dddc689c3c65b33f9bae0268ab0bf429867a4e193d9b9b685040","side":"left"},{"sibling":"bde25d7e94e64717e426a97f6fcb4907e92b5c61fc89d92d7e0947a2249c3f6b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d10d772a4984cae00e65ab24af21d1d260e475bbaae3f17871859eb705bd3999","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e79159853f2f35ddae8e3247d515e433c534277b287d65bbd77ae989aa4992fa","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3054319f1840cce0eaaf0bc4b1ae38e5bf8b6210927d924a750775cc7d77cca6","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0fd8b5059f279c4a4a6688de2472fdbc25543fee183df19b21dacca880354cff","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a04392fb9f2a3a620840e3b3fecd93d12e6d224e481c162389d8ae64e7194599","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c300cf0154c136afc09b1702a0be98f4ba5b6dc5cf57e8cc714ec1eaf4196eff","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":232015,"merkle_root":"62bfb7809bb55667ad7eeebdb48267b9b2c1ee89bb808ea1e6d3a814a15aa402","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260617T133701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-17T13:39:59Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"930a3563c643cc7518d048b12a1f5392a96a5edce49533ba0a56f11b6cc69319bb1c800aacc46b52a6941c4d05dae255a45cac757d6093c971b96852c24f140e","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_3dccdf559bd29a67439952dacb8832c37edd8e1698baefda8c5e5687a851811b"}}