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It has been documented for decades, but its origin remains unexplained. We propose a Bayesian encoding-decoding account in which probabilities are represented by noisy internal signals and decoded by Bayes-risk minimization. For bounded probability stimuli, we show that distortion decomposes into boundary regression, likelihood repulsion, and prior attraction, yielding a key prediction: the classic inverse-S-shaped weighting pattern implies a U-shaped allocation of encoding precision with greater sensitivity near 0 and 1. Across judgment of relative frequency, lottery pricing, and risky choice, this U-shape is recovered from data without imposing any functional form on the encoding, and our framework outperforms deterministic weighting functions, bounded log-odds models, uniform-encoding Bayesian accounts, and matched efficient-coding models on h","title":"The Bayesian Origin of the Probability Weighting Function in Human Representation of Probabilities","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04698","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2510.04698v3 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Humans systematically misrepresent probability in a stereotyped inverse-S pattern. It has been documented for decades, but its origin remains unexplained. We propose a Bayesian encoding-decoding account in which probabilities are represented by noisy internal signals and decoded by Bayes-risk minimization. For bounded probability stimuli, we show that distortion decomposes into boundary regression, likelihood repulsion, and prior attraction, yielding a key prediction: the classic inverse-S-shaped weighting pattern implies a U-shaped allocation of encoding precision with greater sensitivity near 0 and 1. Across judgment of relative frequency, lottery pricing, and risky choice, this U-shape is recovered from data without imposing any functional form on the encoding, and our framework outperforms deterministic weighting functions, bounded log-odds models, uniform-encoding Bayesian accounts, and matched efficient-coding models on h","title":"The Bayesian Origin of the Probability Weighting Function in Human Representation of Probabilities","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-14T04:43:36Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04698"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:904c61b8b8f416569bcfd0b2b674d7376fc404551dcc28e9b6b1a0616bbf116473f52261362131f80ab3aa595687917639b7e32b1adce138095bc8eebd528a0b","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-14T04:43:36Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04698"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"a07386a7ee0d39da4a02183c149b9127bd6a5d56821495f7f342b091b68f274c","leaf_index":132758,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"befdc17bae161236ee5252e0195076a15f7691ed578f0717e007bfc76074c242","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a7872e9e945876247cb8d8f8ff1d97d0bcc7d27f54d39f4b302debec799170c0","side":"left"},{"sibling":"570cac24f94b01241c65709c11787de3cf5baf5ca1c6b90e1cacbc538c6c56bd","side":"left"},{"sibling":"a70b05a3a2e868312d3ad634efe56dff81e44735abf779e858d30f14d8456099","side":"right"},{"sibling":"912dddd911f1f855f9cb7aed00ff33157b4bb988fb800c2a919814e7571258e8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"6aef7f0f2db7886a18a0609f179bd899cd1bc2ce5402be1d8f854cadcdfdaee7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"082bee6702d02c968f73550f57d052606dc8732cddb9a8af38542747b47966a4","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d390ceb521d99fbee195843b8c087d5b6d6b3c13cc9f5d0b36a1c937a84cb77a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"2ae8cbb1d93652ee36f693c3d63e733765fbafcd7765d6d596692bf393ce0a1d","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a957418f640d5dc3181a7628c2646bb86c6da0ea6888670b451e534693a0c7cb","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c03f0a468f574a08ffe8b17e1a17bd88216e1359f0e33a54447e160cd8675da0","side":"left"},{"sibling":"038ff12da6f55509125ef0d96e1e57dda29a2fe63bf03fba2af4cf7cbcd88b36","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b0419206fe62ef216df3900ca93cffd44df267435a4643dda354c1310079cf91","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0d4a9c03674f9d0ce64df15c15e9f656a54b41f93c428aac8e615fda26291956","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7856d920f3f1f1d2194c1ed7351bf0d674440df3cb423a6911f89cb3e9578c0b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6ac6396bdd2e9df315427a46155531476e7f9012b4bd962e0d2d6d1209b11723","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7c8dc85cbfe43e19ac759ad176cfa11dba2467ae17927c471d5c55663c4f490d","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":134292,"merkle_root":"77fc9c28fae777b81da5b495b3115474df6592dfac590333213d3bdf8b94a9b3","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260515T023701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-15T02:37:25Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"68107a834b00b24f5d4501e5ec727445311f132a486567ecc4c72a4e6dff24c8c21f2de3105293353ba5fdbe370d032819af6aa70f694e2e39b6af6737507009","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_411d9eca7003e1213e644af81dc8ff4ae5a5016a42ba70ad72054d4c414b74f3"}}