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Extreme class imbalance biases conventional models toward majority-class predictions, limiting recall, calibration, and operational usefulness. We propose LPCORP (Low-Prevalence CORrector for Prediction)*, a two-stage framework that combines reasoning-enhanced prediction with confidence-based outcome correction. A reasoning model first produces enriched predictions from narrative inputs, after which a lightweight classifier evaluates and selectively corrects these outputs to mitigate prevalence-driven bias. In this study we used Logistic-Regression (LR) and a simple Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) classifiers for this purpose.\n  We evaluate LPCORP on real-world datasets from medical and consumer service domains. The results show tha","title":"Reasoning-Enhanced Rare-Event Prediction with Balanced Outcome Correction","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.16406","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2601.16406v2 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Rare-event prediction is critical in domains such as healthcare, finance, reliability engineering, customer support, aviation safety, where positive outcomes are infrequent yet potentially catastrophic. Extreme class imbalance biases conventional models toward majority-class predictions, limiting recall, calibration, and operational usefulness. We propose LPCORP (Low-Prevalence CORrector for Prediction)*, a two-stage framework that combines reasoning-enhanced prediction with confidence-based outcome correction. A reasoning model first produces enriched predictions from narrative inputs, after which a lightweight classifier evaluates and selectively corrects these outputs to mitigate prevalence-driven bias. In this study we used Logistic-Regression (LR) and a simple Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) classifiers for this purpose.\n  We evaluate LPCORP on real-world datasets from medical and consumer service domains. 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