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We argue that discovery agents should instead maintain explicit, uncertainty-aware beliefs about hypothesis quality. We introduce BayesEvolve, a belief-guided discovery framework that converts experimental evidence into a predictive belief state and uses this belief to guide future experimentation. As a controlled testbed for belief-guided discovery, we evaluate BayesEvolve on shifted BBOB-style black-box optimization tasks, leaving program and laboratory discovery domains to future work. BayesEvolve improves sample efficiency over memory- and archive-guided LLM baselines under a fixed evaluation budget. We further show that the belief state is predictive on held-out candidate pools, th","title":"BayesEvolve: Explicit Belief States for Autonomous Scientific Discovery","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30335","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2606.30335v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Autonomous scientific discovery systems increasingly use large language models (LLMs) to propose new hypotheses, but many such systems condition primarily on experimental memory: archives of high-scoring candidates or heuristic summaries of recent trials. We argue that discovery agents should instead maintain explicit, uncertainty-aware beliefs about hypothesis quality. We introduce BayesEvolve, a belief-guided discovery framework that converts experimental evidence into a predictive belief state and uses this belief to guide future experimentation. As a controlled testbed for belief-guided discovery, we evaluate BayesEvolve on shifted BBOB-style black-box optimization tasks, leaving program and laboratory discovery domains to future work. BayesEvolve improves sample efficiency over memory- and archive-guided LLM baselines under a fixed evaluation budget. We further show that the belief state is predictive on held-out candidate pools, th","title":"BayesEvolve: Explicit Belief States for Autonomous Scientific Discovery","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-30T04:43:04Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30335"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:d09f1f7915a9d5f61cd6faca2397be86b0601f3406b8706135854823e96d4add2162a30b6e12eac714a5bebf4cfd9474a23e5663b2465e90bccd72e36dbe940a","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-30T04:43:04Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30335"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"fe05988f0ec19d23bdab67b3499372dd7b514d80d643711288ebeaf8f85f8023","leaf_index":264700,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"c7c04dd13840379d2678062cf90cd0e41d7f9acba1e4bc0e35d72a32057f2a28","side":"right"},{"sibling":"4b03c739a4f2c9a3e07d14f046a2181039e971d9db351c3d85bf55078c5eaefb","side":"right"},{"sibling":"588fa1b395ea1f9035657ccd4c04283619bef6d415083725d1a20c599ca516b9","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f17380a5a4835aa099305bd74d3db064f686393c3ece5849dec20b4580ced2b8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8a2594a232c7161f0d91736d53f39a1d501148023f3ed1008d3ec2c39e76eb2c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"a96f88dee7bfc22d72d4c564d4d8f94559dfd3ac176e7d3f3c5415b1204d515b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"47460e4ad3c750350537b3d1cfaa7edcd6bdd9654e146d3d3828bac68075ac72","side":"left"},{"sibling":"0adb33f90b5325f1bcd6d9d08abc79306f0275cec357b6a5d5a9aeb8dae006eb","side":"left"},{"sibling":"a18aac5bf38684ad71f816483beee037e0b60af41587ea19ba92b263e2076d3e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e814db3b1e34c91aa2d674ee041f8e093e00869024c9f6f8c4d72cab70c3a87e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"23994bf0974e5c9c7f63a61b4f0a48b0ca756a4adc34a8f85f878e774c37dfbe","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f9b4bed84fa6990c71ad2887c91bda183001f05f6b648f21d1273045a26b11fd","side":"left"},{"sibling":"173d2dc4b29ee04ea41d6d0ebc334c4bc2d46e7ee4230c94765413f24fb4bc42","side":"right"},{"sibling":"112461f7c0ec411116fb5c6c90fe95cea9d8f188b9fe08afe25a837ac02d0071","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ea9488204352c49db8f7daf05eefcd7628ecf9413830346674801a99d0654a94","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6261c13b9922cb657f10d1e5d36ec15d8771cf8766e36c61dcbffb7bed57e396","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fa19aa3faf287618b820bcfceebb366152ad521dd20ef9f51e977816663e448b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c32f943406b62d1fc59b7f7e243492174c8e1caba8c8a2705f86c773315736e0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":265374,"merkle_root":"9636001ecab173cb6af10dc7c71eb14585daa62f9c0a6f027046f05633156891","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260630T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-30T05:38:03Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"6d4b8fd9b9da856cbb5fba7540877c6a63fa18a5ec3eaf28dc4d6d1c64921c9c0565f8c95f4b7aec0e7744fd7754844f051baf863db708cad768765b416a7b0c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_53359d204d0b635596eff1d70c2d9b9ddd501691918481d755731f13dd60746e"}}