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We introduce StakeBench, an evaluation framework for language understanding grounded in market commitment. StakeBench links 560,876 comments from 2,261 resolved markets to verified position, action, and market-odds records across Polymarket and Manifold. Supervision is derived from observable market behavior. Position sides, post-comment trading actions, and market-odds trajectories replace human annotation. Four diagnostic tasks test whether models detect market commitment, identify the revealed side, anticipate future action, and perform collective odds projection. Three commitment-aware metrics measure alignment with revealed preferences rather than perceived sentiment. Validity audits and explicit interpretation boundaries help distinguish observable com","title":"StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26074","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.26074v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Existing financial NLP benchmarks often rely on labels supplied by outside observers, measuring how language is perceived rather than what speakers have committed to in the market. We introduce StakeBench, an evaluation framework for language understanding grounded in market commitment. StakeBench links 560,876 comments from 2,261 resolved markets to verified position, action, and market-odds records across Polymarket and Manifold. Supervision is derived from observable market behavior. Position sides, post-comment trading actions, and market-odds trajectories replace human annotation. Four diagnostic tasks test whether models detect market commitment, identify the revealed side, anticipate future action, and perform collective odds projection. Three commitment-aware metrics measure alignment with revealed preferences rather than perceived sentiment. Validity audits and explicit interpretation boundaries help distinguish observable com","title":"StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26074"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:4910eaedc41029bb5e6d7d5d6bb81e7d58dc07e70b7445c7839942aadbb49e138fcb44af05e31db0ce7485da26651ee6a16716053fe5a69e204490d04dcea305","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26074"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"1096c33d4ef874b0bca80c2fbb172c57dd39e56ea5d6c9be767278b45d4d32fb","leaf_index":151763,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"713e26af3031787b905db52d6a4453177e6bff1a79db379c6ba3b058ddbcf480","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f2493c1ea31e6aa115adeddeca4e504a1284ed878ba5f358e71a27a12da0fd13","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5a2e68f74aab7c84221f4c537a69a33111b53ce66065aecc98f323a85030a231","side":"right"},{"sibling":"94bea2864409dc0d8f85e20ae58a22cd8018b51d936772517d5dc61e0a3a789f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"bd5e22c4cec0af076b731c3cb7866ae4bcd8cadb6c3339b71979fe2034716556","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4ae6332358f1845b78ca5df224c5c067ed70893a61ca3ccb6220dbb5118b086b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"995c5183ae35c285c0b1b516f6ec38a4e2ea87b861f4feb17fe9bba32548c97d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f9db7ff3c5db7011b2738b446bad7b165ec8fd162c800ba3bad08298201edaa3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"aff657821100efc777fe98abc63d25a13c2d813d2a00f85a278e295ee3a166b3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"879666fab72e779ab55d0564eaabd64b00534fd6bba7f18412c7f31f61ffd09f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f40ccedd90c323817e961adc0a2e2db82b8aabe192b6c9d5a373ff988987b207","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b85ea61ae405eed84392a7b6b1eee5536f5a38d6b04070638e23ec7b71e3443a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d415e6939aee710631f5062799379b547d2c3e3d9a68f263bbb5a693285ab2ca","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e5893793e3591ed7f5e58ca94ffcfba46bb30f69fb1c25d5ba8ef49eb99f9126","side":"right"},{"sibling":"35ca36cee447f0ef7064a25d55f59357c66901e31427729c4c1d8b14aa8adb6c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3eecaf996dbe7229a7bb1d234c97aea97a252c5f7c89f8547b6d091db0f0e40","side":"right"},{"sibling":"55bcbd4da3e20d93931f7e58673f10232e81a5b1514d7396cb4b71e8f95788d0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":152106,"merkle_root":"ac5182c6f3dd09931f2a689df5f4be36df7b55e55bcf106e195671f5ed55fd8f","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260526T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-26T05:37:34Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"a401243fbd2c077d29a623c6ef616c78fbd5c8ce1930afa7af7165b2386e5a8cf15d5094983a1c962e71b27b911a3f3ce09c8cfab9393be2ce5ce8ee6513da06","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_59e9ccb3db454ac5c0e0710da8a6419f45e7f9e935296b2af4f43ddfdf9f7459"}}