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However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and often constrained by ethical or practical limitations, motivating the need for causal methods able to draw conclusions from observational data. While such data is collected at ever larger scale, making its use for causal inference is often hindered by the fact that not all variables affecting treatment allocation and the outcome are observed: an issue known as unobserved confounding. In this paper, we introduce a new study design called confounder detection via treatment intent. The idea is to query a human expert who makes treatment decisions, and ask them to compare pairs of units proposed by a principled matching strategy, with the goal of eliciting unobserved variables that explain why treatment ","title":"Confounder Detection via Treatment Intent: A New Observational Study Design","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26413","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.26413v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and often constrained by ethical or practical limitations, motivating the need for causal methods able to draw conclusions from observational data. While such data is collected at ever larger scale, making its use for causal inference is often hindered by the fact that not all variables affecting treatment allocation and the outcome are observed: an issue known as unobserved confounding. In this paper, we introduce a new study design called confounder detection via treatment intent. The idea is to query a human expert who makes treatment decisions, and ask them to compare pairs of units proposed by a principled matching strategy, with the goal of eliciting unobserved variables that explain why treatment ","title":"Confounder Detection via Treatment Intent: A New Observational Study Design","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-27T04:43:18Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26413"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:60412ab8437012c9be47649c92bc3cb1638085ef216718398779f5b8de8e74c7540c83daa3b812debae3836530e9db3976b903606e07afc7ee2e159eed63dd02","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-27T04:43:18Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26413"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"7cfe33bbe71147db685c743a816904def201c12d105a52a9a611c337ffcdfcc3","leaf_index":153676,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"8580a4cde8e6e08fe2b1a97d55eefe7bde7ea607595da8e02266b523e04dc53e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b4acd53660144f48c433078b89ce4867e4bbb783d5d96b70f63b956cb0ec03d1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"84e5de256651f3adf0424d39b64f5c6157356b0ef1ed70f7e8076e4a9df6ac6a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5d90278b83442ed3c2411f665d372d6a4a7246759f0643382b0629dd61a09f9d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"76d7e9aab53a022b48740c7341ac525aa9f0633225ab5460d284eddb7780240f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6c9ab638d911822a9031db3f48c0a1ef373237cc0d10ec931e6c9c74b4922252","side":"right"},{"sibling":"727ac1dfc33933f05b7eed6f887414eb57d6283ba0cbf0d562eadb6f86c3d644","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e6fcc8fd02ff764f6e74465d070f84e313e858647d901e3ee00b83931106f26c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c56e46802f42ead6bcf79619c80428b6dc22e9afc9611a87f0d04a5ef9acadd7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3165125427a29042fc9d02858a59a68858dbdcb2e19d1afa5f6dd6a95cfbce6a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"04b9a68b8ec6fa37251564383c685c23ce69e5e031df4eae69f79a3a334b68bf","side":"right"},{"sibling":"816f233274bb10f5a122aac086a0c8c697b78fec67a4af55190bb596b7506fab","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d415e6939aee710631f5062799379b547d2c3e3d9a68f263bbb5a693285ab2ca","side":"left"},{"sibling":"374c02d15fb12bd356c179c94766043a982052c6132af8bfc15361b431ffa9f7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"35ca36cee447f0ef7064a25d55f59357c66901e31427729c4c1d8b14aa8adb6c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"990705096edf483cc877217308f731dc42d6f6d99f82880167bbdbbfef32560a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"dd265753d95fa2e2fb4f5768e37fab6f691ccff09ad60d0910ff7dc23bac9226","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":154065,"merkle_root":"4993cfdc172e7880b60667f16789dc2e831ff000f81bb1ecba248e73f1510eca","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260527T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-27T05:37:36Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"76ecf118011540405e96506e6219752df04a2850632f2903dc6f10e08b98bc5a42c8d9e1cb5b7c5bf714479806a403df5f34399afa40c23fbb71493a1f77bd0c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_5cfba517e32418c522dfaa8adfeef9775b1dbf49363fd006e137e8abc8a77cc0"}}