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To address these issues, this study conducted counterfactual analyses using MLB Statcast data. A Transformer-based machine-learning model was trained to predict whether a target pitch would result in an in-play outcome or swing-out. Counterfactual pitch sequences were then generated by replacing either the final pitch or the preceding setup pitch with alternative pitch types and locations while keeping the surrounding contextual information fixed. 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Counterfactual pitch sequences were then generated by replacing either the final pitch or the preceding setup pitch with alternative pitch types and locations while keeping the surrounding contextual information fixed. Optimal counterfactual selections were defined as those that minimized the predicted in-play probability, and their expected effects on pitchers' seasonal statistics were estimated using regression mod","title":"Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-17T04:43:17Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17345"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:35631cbec6d9bd6a293ca27bff512927e262bf62b15847a082bea1a493c8a108d88442ef20ef7b823f0fbcb68f5aadd9d5204eb97c1e993af15cda1f97541103","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-17T04:43:17Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17345"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"00afb59ac7a93669e926afbb2b8ef373e4224569c08abde14ddf21c7af291890","leaf_index":230946,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"dafb6d06e97da5a7714a5e631e4ac29614784c1df6c0c6734b6e4caa2d321943","side":"right"},{"sibling":"95e25729b7c19d553eda8d1d9173ff9edff1dc24c623c066de1d1484615232e9","side":"left"},{"sibling":"3c407b691291e525624b5236c38e4b8c377fd2f63f81c06e68f12887692f6cdc","side":"right"},{"sibling":"19b5855b3de8dfdf0fdbbfe1a68a5c4c97a6ad0847e5e2dac935da53146309b5","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ef9bcf9c10d56a6779b0a42c09c5568bd75c62b5590d3e1bf4c759b4a68cbc78","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5c9714c4f84729db7823b96b6c0b1f4dc4e12fc3533f4ecb008a46b42a10d67e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"46a8ccd2dac1ed36480a55cc7afe558ddcd720bdcdac4bb787046b5795ed8399","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ce828166a6a4fc2ff2681c985a56053a1f8b683cc245e0b232fa5939310b3ad9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ebbec9ce4bf43a3f5f71e2c07df4c91301abefa2da727a4d748099a74e980bc3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1d74941c32baeab8cad08f8700cb49427d8256f231534f2a225b2bb3e84e4ff8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d5b9f8b1a2c9f6a46e17982dfbe6ce1f3b5fa4e730220397f2253d114dcc8486","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d10d772a4984cae00e65ab24af21d1d260e475bbaae3f17871859eb705bd3999","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e79159853f2f35ddae8e3247d515e433c534277b287d65bbd77ae989aa4992fa","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3054319f1840cce0eaaf0bc4b1ae38e5bf8b6210927d924a750775cc7d77cca6","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0fd8b5059f279c4a4a6688de2472fdbc25543fee183df19b21dacca880354cff","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a04392fb9f2a3a620840e3b3fecd93d12e6d224e481c162389d8ae64e7194599","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c300cf0154c136afc09b1702a0be98f4ba5b6dc5cf57e8cc714ec1eaf4196eff","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":232015,"merkle_root":"62bfb7809bb55667ad7eeebdb48267b9b2c1ee89bb808ea1e6d3a814a15aa402","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260617T133701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-17T13:39:59Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"930a3563c643cc7518d048b12a1f5392a96a5edce49533ba0a56f11b6cc69319bb1c800aacc46b52a6941c4d05dae255a45cac757d6093c971b96852c24f140e","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_5e33ad70368a9bc44b857e6f0882a3dda561af032b48a460d6c4f6d59e794fb5"}}