{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_5eb4383b700b46169b65a0d96eb683038507dc865e18c128a97ac28896334d23","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":[],"calendar_attestations":[],"ots_url":"","stamped_at":"","status":"pending_next_stamp"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_5eb4383b700b46169b65a0d96eb683038507dc865e18c128a97ac28896334d23","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"d04489c2e7134ee040ed1de2a3ac027a11629194ae1232074f976380304c486b","published":"Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"d04489c2e7134ee040ed1de2a3ac027a11629194ae1232074f976380304c486b","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"d04489c2e7134ee040ed1de2a3ac027a11629194ae1232074f976380304c486b","observed_at":"2026-05-19T04:43:36.782648Z","parent_run_hash":"fefa4c726316a95c5dda9fc1ca07a38a811cf7ffa9825b2f09b365abacd9b32d","published":"Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2605.16828v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: We consider the following two-player game: using observational data, the leader chooses a prediction function for a response variable $Y$ from given covariates. The follower then reacts with an intervention on some covariates in the underlying structural causal model to maximize their own objective. The leader knows the intervention targets, but may have limited knowledge of the follower's objective. We call this setup a prediction-intervention game, a special case of a Stackelberg game. Finding an optimal strategy for the leader is generally difficult. To avoid severe performance loss, the leader may base their prediction on the causal parents of $Y$, or more generally on an invariant subset of covariates. We prove, for two common classes of follower objectives, that predictors based on the stable blanket, a specific invariant subset, are always better or as good as those based on the causal parents. We further upper bound the leader'","title":"Prediction-Intervention Games and Invariant Sets","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16828","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.16828v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: We consider the following two-player game: using observational data, the leader chooses a prediction function for a response variable $Y$ from given covariates. The follower then reacts with an intervention on some covariates in the underlying structural causal model to maximize their own objective. The leader knows the intervention targets, but may have limited knowledge of the follower's objective. We call this setup a prediction-intervention game, a special case of a Stackelberg game. Finding an optimal strategy for the leader is generally difficult. To avoid severe performance loss, the leader may base their prediction on the causal parents of $Y$, or more generally on an invariant subset of covariates. We prove, for two common classes of follower objectives, that predictors based on the stable blanket, a specific invariant subset, are always better or as good as those based on the causal parents. We further upper bound the leader'","title":"Prediction-Intervention Games and Invariant Sets","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-19T04:43:36Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16828"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:164d43984cf97ec29e29ca039a9153e93c688beb9869ed4a05fc941531411870b262a086aa888693fe2a0fdf0019b27c6b4d8848e5317f8e702afb8a576bfd05","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-19T04:43:36Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16828"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"80b1de86b948bc5beef374b088da538e59e93b66053ab9d861503b148ccd434b","leaf_index":142651,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"01b022f75d2d0abb0b6d2a38201b91c02cdc558fb1daa492838ef1ccffc38567","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4e0a02312401f6e822f7948fc3b6b6a76d5f4d115d3663304e9ff3b19abe2112","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d58c1029cb063248b6caa50f2fb7a9d4f3eb34ec8de67c8c91dc0b2f79f0ce86","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9939a81bb268e791425a563c2520ffde4731da34c943f06bb75a9748412d49b4","side":"left"},{"sibling":"05cbd2d882d5b173de653577c32a81db3c3fd0835c30eb055d6dac5a138bbb60","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d4a39fb3bfea767fa296ac8a64d492f56f7e036300aa1b1e95b9875173f523f8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d1699c63b2a3c9d160a7dad72120a688f97fd9b9cc8ea79fe409f9e6aaaa5bbc","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0681a3895a908b2cd98c077a0abe5cdd8542f0ecb3a6294a35366c915b2e2e3e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f1c796d3bd453570426dcee9ab20072f19762202f84b7993afba2c7c0ee9ec3b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"2e0ce989d789c88e796991ef014ce7e4e1f96c0d4ede9da8d31afcf5ba6a8f46","side":"right"},{"sibling":"202f1bead178ef3785968d50d3d188264a95192a077654c331612e04a34cbfbe","side":"left"},{"sibling":"72249c8c8b068386e35d16f4bd0bbeb9ba820ca217ef0f0d28396c9fe493f5f0","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ea64599340f7ffdf17ad0cbc1d9401ef8870a347e3847bdc106d06b1673df09c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8f4c0fbe56b6c010fbb8c782ebcd478079bb3f991d8704e2534209a075d9163c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4db1f363729507e27a60851cf6ed334d7b9acdef194ed7d419aba4d2bd367a4a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a86ee18c45e7fcc408b6007eaece05aa75b2d9ae30252e9e878462b4dffbef7b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1d18e7663d43ccff0122ecc7ee12645bb16afb607b218e81b1ea2408f863cb78","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":143302,"merkle_root":"999156d40a7c61d9ddd52b7338f3cbda3e68f53bace070c7b616ea194e23b123","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260519T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-19T05:37:30Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"b1a252cc66ff32bed1d10dd88a6b2a200e3856d3dbcfcc4ee55e02e00f3d548e854ed9c544704b222bd5d315492c4a935ba2d90d727c585a67899b0ad602fc05","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_5eb4383b700b46169b65a0d96eb683038507dc865e18c128a97ac28896334d23"}}