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We study this failure mode as false-confidence concentration, the extent to which confident errors occupy compact, discoverable regions of prediction space. We introduce FALCON-Discover, a post-hoc, model-agnostic framework that ranks predictions using discrepancy signals from confidence, local support, neighborhood agreement, and perturbation stability. Across seven binary tabular datasets, four seeds, five-fold cross-fitting, and strong learners including XGBoost and CatBoost, we find that false-confidence concentration is recurrent but regime-dependent. At the main confidence threshold, discrepancy-based ranking substantially outperforms the strongest validation-selected calibration or trust-scoring baseline in the strongest regimes, while raw confidence recovers little dangero","title":"FALCON-Discover: Discovering Concentrated False-Confidence Regions for Calibration","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18278","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.18278v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Calibration is usually evaluated in aggregate, but the most dangerous failures are often local: predictions that remain highly confident despite being wrong. We study this failure mode as false-confidence concentration, the extent to which confident errors occupy compact, discoverable regions of prediction space. We introduce FALCON-Discover, a post-hoc, model-agnostic framework that ranks predictions using discrepancy signals from confidence, local support, neighborhood agreement, and perturbation stability. Across seven binary tabular datasets, four seeds, five-fold cross-fitting, and strong learners including XGBoost and CatBoost, we find that false-confidence concentration is recurrent but regime-dependent. At the main confidence threshold, discrepancy-based ranking substantially outperforms the strongest validation-selected calibration or trust-scoring baseline in the strongest regimes, while raw confidence recovers little dangero","title":"FALCON-Discover: Discovering Concentrated False-Confidence Regions for Calibration","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-22T04:43:18Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18278"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:9db7834c89a3d65f5d349c2d567146856f49c556207ef9af91df758249c3f97f92a616e27313ae85cfd5c03b19ae011932abcf635bbb24f5a938cd015c6e0f0d","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-22T04:43:18Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18278"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"24fba2cc2ffaa455ead2b1effda33fb28dcabc4b4334577330fb30148b617aa9","leaf_index":340194,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"8bb7068585e697383a9e8ee34570a39797171f0c374a26141c0ed382d05eda7f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d85acc988063f85164fc83a3f5e58c521027fac54a75d224905f9f103601a91c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8259c63ca07cfe0d4970f120f64dfa6ca994e2dcb163e90cc802103c9b43e2af","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5a11cb1d4a9484f09738d6726eaad84c125609db857bfc442367a7c07a05b46e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7030f57e43a484aa5b758076c98dba4f4dff7d1a1c8c3101ec721a74bf6c929c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"43998a1a57a65bd1de81db5cc2eea6975708ea80e20709bdf1d8a24f45d87a28","side":"left"},{"sibling":"3ef60c9ed8999dfaf391c6bba67940285b69f69ba30251f62e74b5bc37deb1a8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"acd872eabf3ff3deb3760bc63ca3a4ca483306d9b2eb2ddf59ac880a653ae17a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c0cb3fbdae423fd11084f7ab87b57c412a0ef2e6dcda395ebb9831d480ad609b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c7fc9d4187cdc36f4c03b4b13daf4b880ea65536b051f71a5cc2543839d02697","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1758ec6ac206ce40e8368cb702195322fe3737d0fb03d8bd9e3b30acc4fa7d81","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0c407f0d553cf3fab8f9bd79205b8180e090cbf29fa0490ebb55155041ad5c86","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2dd9cb2521044ee7c6b74f2315e0a0253b8df0d04a7b810bbbbe7da5a9788769","side":"left"},{"sibling":"21d66dd41003813f710b7617944f1bfba3258658a5d3370c21cad8f9e945bc99","side":"left"},{"sibling":"787ee3744642ff909d610b0514cb100784f0ef1ba0ef4c70a0dc91f0ab2bb192","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9fc8a8ebbc1bff7e62b9f1e1c681c91e7196092ce9551573df6e23096df13e4d","side":"right"},{"sibling":"77025bcb374a7ad74f520643e20a8ae1205a7ee78507b0beb93117760f1c29d3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ee6f33920899d9bdef2eb706dfff29e26eea61e29ea9824c6c8e6bcd48275d76","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":340557,"merkle_root":"7d45d94f20b5bf82263df45b87749e19e06161972f25141dd573cc138d566338","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260722T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-22T05:38:39Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"812cb61e90d3582ba508db8515c4168bbf8ee1c6762885609049d012f680f8068f15c98b9accf2042047dcfc6a6fc3885820ee34b0be350846386f64f2591309","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_6463bcfa18169bbbcd2ce1163844f462015a13a7c9d617549eccf218831760b4"}}