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Such outer loops cost 10^2-10^3x their gradient inner loop, yet whether they beat a cheap single-shot alternative is usually discovered only after the expense is paid. Our rule computes, at a Phase-0 gate, a single number: the recovery R = s/G, the best single-shot gradient/curvature statistic's gain s divided by the best gain G of any cheap method evaluated, and prescribes skipping the outer loop when R >= 90%. We validate the rule on a within-lab series of pre-registered outer-loop bets (two analyzed cases plus a disclosed file drawer): in both analyzed cases a static or single-shot computation captured the effect on the project's own metric, the gate fired (R approximately 1.0 in both cases; approximately 0.95 under a stricter ","title":"Knowing in Advance When an Evolutionary Outer Loop Will Not Help: A Pre-Registered Cheap-Baseline Screening Rule","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29119","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2606.29119v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: We introduce a pre-registered screening rule that decides, before any implementation, whether an evolutionary / population / lifecycle outer loop over neural-network parameters or structure is worth building. Such outer loops cost 10^2-10^3x their gradient inner loop, yet whether they beat a cheap single-shot alternative is usually discovered only after the expense is paid. Our rule computes, at a Phase-0 gate, a single number: the recovery R = s/G, the best single-shot gradient/curvature statistic's gain s divided by the best gain G of any cheap method evaluated, and prescribes skipping the outer loop when R >= 90%. We validate the rule on a within-lab series of pre-registered outer-loop bets (two analyzed cases plus a disclosed file drawer): in both analyzed cases a static or single-shot computation captured the effect on the project's own metric, the gate fired (R approximately 1.0 in both cases; approximately 0.95 under a stricter ","title":"Knowing in Advance When an Evolutionary Outer Loop Will Not Help: A Pre-Registered Cheap-Baseline Screening Rule","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-30T04:43:04Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29119"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:7cb1e2ecf0fd47c074f4c1646a8f67ca0da09378ba5a4ec61e6c1fc71618ed1c41a0e368429ec04425739f4147c6c2c88d530aac16a2515671a4e22218da1402","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-30T04:43:04Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29119"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"f405fc6f44a02925c05bef2870c8dbe73570e44d0854f170a64e2f692356289a","leaf_index":264867,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"27e762b9426cdd2f7411bda64a385771f34d6044b8cfe8aad748f6f8b5ed5288","side":"left"},{"sibling":"782f96e1300ba1574444ca87abdd99685fc450f96e8f129b821750875dc72c20","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4c6415c4cbd80caf9b1304920e6ab74f3a0e11c6096c7541280802e007096afb","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3d91f6f7ddd1a3adbc5385971927d6042f7850ec5509fda42b966b325faaec15","side":"right"},{"sibling":"df2dbe9a93b9b557bbb84d8bbf5db71ee1cd98f48e0492c84484a171f901c9d1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"08f8bb7a77c336bb7bf56b4bb9701dc787b4388392021a3cc60345143966d0de","side":"left"},{"sibling":"07528e32fda4a58ff6ab8ca2268cc78d4ff4ed66bfadde9432f593a2fb4e74e7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"86ba07f5dfcbf22e044b5aa0ecc15cd2f29de9218e54da603c4ffe753c522516","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5767f14b55df4212d25ae2f52b8f3d4abff2555c65ba62935ed6cb0a8e617b43","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1549a8883ab3267f958dc2624919e40c65c82958b8005967ed6a4da1247da0ad","side":"left"},{"sibling":"23994bf0974e5c9c7f63a61b4f0a48b0ca756a4adc34a8f85f878e774c37dfbe","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f9b4bed84fa6990c71ad2887c91bda183001f05f6b648f21d1273045a26b11fd","side":"left"},{"sibling":"173d2dc4b29ee04ea41d6d0ebc334c4bc2d46e7ee4230c94765413f24fb4bc42","side":"right"},{"sibling":"112461f7c0ec411116fb5c6c90fe95cea9d8f188b9fe08afe25a837ac02d0071","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ea9488204352c49db8f7daf05eefcd7628ecf9413830346674801a99d0654a94","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6261c13b9922cb657f10d1e5d36ec15d8771cf8766e36c61dcbffb7bed57e396","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fa19aa3faf287618b820bcfceebb366152ad521dd20ef9f51e977816663e448b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c32f943406b62d1fc59b7f7e243492174c8e1caba8c8a2705f86c773315736e0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":265374,"merkle_root":"9636001ecab173cb6af10dc7c71eb14585daa62f9c0a6f027046f05633156891","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260630T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-30T05:38:03Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"6d4b8fd9b9da856cbb5fba7540877c6a63fa18a5ec3eaf28dc4d6d1c64921c9c0565f8c95f4b7aec0e7744fd7754844f051baf863db708cad768765b416a7b0c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_6bde28cf7f8cca8c7e7089401721f586dafd70b58d859df3210fe7100c51ec2a"}}