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We prove that the dominant failure mode of such methods is not the scalar format itself but a fundamental computational mismatch: existing methods compute scores via marginal conditioning or off-manifold gradients, both of which conflate direct temporal dependencies with mediated ones under autocorrelation. We also define DAG-faithfulness: an explanation is DAG-faithful if the temporal dependency graph it encodes is Markov-equivalent to the temporal directed acyclic graph (DAG) implicitly learned by the model. Particularly, we observe that standard attribution methods, specifically SHAP, are not DAG-faithful in general, and that recent time-series-aware extensions inherit the same computational limitation.","title":"The Failures of Marginal Influence-Based Attribution Methods for Global Time Series Explanations","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16236","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.16236v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Explainability methods for time series models predominantly produce flat attribution scores: they quantify the direct influence of a feature at a timestamp by a scalar. We prove that the dominant failure mode of such methods is not the scalar format itself but a fundamental computational mismatch: existing methods compute scores via marginal conditioning or off-manifold gradients, both of which conflate direct temporal dependencies with mediated ones under autocorrelation. We also define DAG-faithfulness: an explanation is DAG-faithful if the temporal dependency graph it encodes is Markov-equivalent to the temporal directed acyclic graph (DAG) implicitly learned by the model. Particularly, we observe that standard attribution methods, specifically SHAP, are not DAG-faithful in general, and that recent time-series-aware extensions inherit the same computational limitation.","title":"The Failures of Marginal Influence-Based Attribution Methods for Global Time Series Explanations","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-21T04:43:35Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16236"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:d659cc9bc316bf8d40bf8650417498e60f7d4489ca7f02bede48ab7c998fbc15c22733d82922e33b6435e4bc8c8471382031e38b27720805c3b7ac15ef2eaa00","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-21T04:43:35Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16236"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"2d854301598339204a79829601a006d9238f6d241a6ae1828afc5ba736c090ce","leaf_index":336635,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"d0449300fde7ac1b33a5c457a0f9e298a3ef8d098724598b99906940e357a7a1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"3a8262c88dbba1b7bd1c75ed9971d5ab5b00754f9734ee79a1a6c8a7ffc7591e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f4b5d30acfc0438980d73ca98953d2058c154d60a4ee8d2a2f98cbdce2365912","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6d129ef0192bc44a3a96606de2c179d906c9ac7ba7f94d0114a61bd0de01a576","side":"left"},{"sibling":"72ece6a3c66026c3d1afb05b2b7d39668a3f916397f146b63c60b2e207237529","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b2189a2bc21d1e40057c39486554f2eeccc1d12bef974a9b2cc82edce1d2ad42","side":"left"},{"sibling":"78afb98e8815c9330b3a7e74c8b56112eb0284b980a66d5b96cce812169af054","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e6f9d6d6c760446a7b30dd4e30a28f58c0817f4bee09529ee009c470d86f5564","side":"left"},{"sibling":"38e5827f7c9f72ad34a2b97042f2fb5f7e868db899d074b7819af4f2209b9caa","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7b927551b5db06b6571913b4e6792ffcce5291a3eca5a0df4a3b6e296271105f","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b77a0b5ae4607c8fe6ba73449d46b35076e3dedc0c82a2c65a05780d42a7bc2e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9eb5077edfb3dc553857d4794b925bfce117e0f8a1d049af5d0dd9026b470eef","side":"right"},{"sibling":"414b1a70fd1dcb25489a194714b97492b066684b15d0b7a48a176c4b9b5bc713","side":"right"},{"sibling":"21d66dd41003813f710b7617944f1bfba3258658a5d3370c21cad8f9e945bc99","side":"left"},{"sibling":"613f015699131eb89bd755dee67133be95af25cf5f16c1c8ce4b99d963b8dd86","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a729b574b1135956436ded5eef1fe8f08014ff6a0729749d307ab1bca93fcdc9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"77025bcb374a7ad74f520643e20a8ae1205a7ee78507b0beb93117760f1c29d3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4bf21052e085e8ac81f1dec1d2b310bd12bf948992de6177d12e9d2fda8d39f0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":337144,"merkle_root":"5e969cc01afa67e4dbe5d37b712cdb10f4aa1fd74404e02eab724cf487c8d6d9","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260721T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-21T05:38:38Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"5c0c1a8dd2793d787ccd5e49e8b4d70eed136352555518589f05c74be357fc171702e42a76c3a556d90e3d51ff36cb3d292aaac83c66566de7b943f318bda50c","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_6ce993fc3fb30a48630b5c791688735d43ded2ba8d68065fdd89692aec25758b"}}