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Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in $P_X$ and $P_{Y\\mid X}$. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapo","title":"FLUXtrapolation: A benchmark on extrapolating ecosystem fluxes","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.19812","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.19812v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in $P_X$ and $P_{Y\\mid X}$. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapo","title":"FLUXtrapolation: A benchmark on extrapolating ecosystem fluxes","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.19812"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:ff916d14175648bfa8e4dcf9040f70fde6355c724c36f63f87e1cc49fa5dedae558aae9d21d94e6342d91bdba762d49db7e3091b348fc3521d72529e28c84e0a","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.19812"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"791ed67a1b5669c476280a87385195263c05774db7ac19ad35eb8e16c58ffcb7","leaf_index":145162,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"74d296215423d570e64ef248a96fd04f3c286ed6f168c061d5825f4523bff594","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c94c0080048afbcbe209e4731a7d5f4831185c0db86bd7a6000cb4ae1f6249ac","side":"left"},{"sibling":"40d99c605de1cf872a6ee0e9a5061907f428db6f9aaea08794d9f6839072b9ca","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b67ced78378a1e4d5fe45d8563a682f2aede0f7c691dedd6ed8b8164984365a5","side":"left"},{"sibling":"661199978ee5051165364db0835af4960eb3206d85a2f298ab71e29602a04d49","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b99be01cbaba744ca7ff4b885aa3719538c700a9950b1d576dcbb72b0ebb33a9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d77ffc4da30d9a4e8a195ba75c70a311b679833ea9892b2b0316f75590747950","side":"right"},{"sibling":"79fb6d27e8a49dd15a97fca96f52d62ff5ee7213d44a5526459d33f42a050928","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f073aa7be27ee7e1d9eb0de5f129f7e9bae0c584fb959378c395b65831dc1d1d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"1526885f19d1fadf6955cf519dbc4e62d593a4bba99d741e8c301740a7068233","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3a7d5c07f161682d61bd453ffc02ecdf87cfeda70f986d6650017f9d2d6b265","side":"left"},{"sibling":"edbc49f08e5b92291934c05c9e6efd270a6b0698d8d2fa474006366027dfe098","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3e4df6e7457cecbf36f350375e72dcab336a3984422e4c406ef809e4e2944e96","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8f4c0fbe56b6c010fbb8c782ebcd478079bb3f991d8704e2534209a075d9163c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"be08fedc4e72a6fb56606f66812fae7317e09690b9acb18385f4ab117a981238","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0534329a7475dc9df51998c83c16892126679dade0fa34182f21e869599386c7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2d24720928ead0e7670650eb55f558c4f20e4c18df376f47ba72cfa8cf0ed344","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":147301,"merkle_root":"08903d7159c3b38eeeeafc09eab15139ea417f1d94f02f1fbc87296b37db840a","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260521T183701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-21T18:37:33Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"905f2924632dfa2970c8690285f5b5d4a1d891d0e0ef1cbc404ebec2fd937215ac768e16f0a9f28b18977a55ae0bfd226db6833ae7ef588729054117d2da7303","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_70c5920f4933908b52e8e1e26e8fb831c14502571e35e6e4aae01ca73fdfc9ee"}}