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Existing regression and classification approaches share a structural limitation; they map features observed at time t to labels at the same time t, reproducing already-realised outcomes rather than predicting future events, and discard the sequential behavioural structure inherent in individual attendance histories. We propose a Time Series Classification (TSC) framework that separates historical attendance sequences from future absence labels, enabling genuinely proactive prediction. Due to the lack of public longitudinal attendance data, we construct a reproducible simulated dataset calibrated to the UCI dataset. We analyse Binary Focal Loss (BFL) and Ge","title":"A time-series classification framework for individual-level absenteeism prediction under severe class imbalance","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.31532","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2606.31532v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Staff absenteeism imposes substantial operational costs in high-demand work environments such as healthcare, emergency services, meat processing, construction, and courier and delivery services, where proactive workforce planning depends on reliable individual-level absence prediction. Existing regression and classification approaches share a structural limitation; they map features observed at time t to labels at the same time t, reproducing already-realised outcomes rather than predicting future events, and discard the sequential behavioural structure inherent in individual attendance histories. We propose a Time Series Classification (TSC) framework that separates historical attendance sequences from future absence labels, enabling genuinely proactive prediction. Due to the lack of public longitudinal attendance data, we construct a reproducible simulated dataset calibrated to the UCI dataset. 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