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We introduce the NOVA framework, which models the common ``generate, verify, accumulate, retrain'' loop as an adaptive sampling process over a knowledge space. We identify sufficient conditions under which accumulated genuine knowledge eventually covers a finite domain, and show how their violations produce distinct failure modes: contamination, forgetting, exploration failure, and acceptance failure. We then analyze imperfect verification and identify a contamination trap: as easy-to-find knowledge is exhausted, the model mass assigned to new valid artifacts shrinks, so even small false-positive rates can cause invalid artifacts to enter the knowledge base faster than genuine discoveries. We clarify that Good--Turing estimation is a local batch-diversity diagnostic, not an estimator of the historically undiscovered valid mass tha","title":"NOVA: Fundamental Limits of Knowledge Discovery Through AI","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.15219","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.15219v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Can AI systems discover genuinely new knowledge through iterative self improvement, and if so, at what cost? We introduce the NOVA framework, which models the common ``generate, verify, accumulate, retrain'' loop as an adaptive sampling process over a knowledge space. We identify sufficient conditions under which accumulated genuine knowledge eventually covers a finite domain, and show how their violations produce distinct failure modes: contamination, forgetting, exploration failure, and acceptance failure. We then analyze imperfect verification and identify a contamination trap: as easy-to-find knowledge is exhausted, the model mass assigned to new valid artifacts shrinks, so even small false-positive rates can cause invalid artifacts to enter the knowledge base faster than genuine discoveries. We clarify that Good--Turing estimation is a local batch-diversity diagnostic, not an estimator of the historically undiscovered valid mass tha","title":"NOVA: Fundamental Limits of Knowledge Discovery Through AI","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-18T04:43:11Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.15219"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:2cff391283e29085bc0d7fde143a7c5583ca26eaf025c4c929f381f2623842d0e9cd0306d55b136def079e4c741e63d4d937cc9181411e2594c11012e80ec60c","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-18T04:43:11Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.15219"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"9a9a82adad0e5d654bace267ab81e82010010515e6c17bd7bcd088b21f3717e5","leaf_index":140506,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"0a00f73beca3a7e73d6bbf94375c3c2a57d1b7a3e18ea6ec57ca15dca03d32fe","side":"right"},{"sibling":"032db892958bd3c5e7c8b38d9986715e4e02483eea99467bf9b3af248dd8b6fe","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d590716226bfd17ba732a6d42a937747bacc548f142b4499648d08009e72cdd0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"136c5fd6cf6b4bbb30b17f9faa3db2d7c28f94e3cf2571d65e25b097ba86083a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"0c73149d5467542f8a40f6db2da847f062da79fc370de1db88a90bf22918ea75","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e239f966b1c88108d538e97d76606501be5337aeedc47685347be96aec709332","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ac4d8fd82d26e4a1d7cd769b05134f3ffc727d30067d8493078e2e1f990de915","side":"left"},{"sibling":"aa12701da7eb982274dc9d39660430c01b4600169201b42a8dfc61c6bc7ef399","side":"left"},{"sibling":"12ff3a9a0c9ee98dcc421928be42a94362f83bd65bffafeece0428e048eaeb7e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"07abc3bad689e74e6304772503dc9372a118e6f66883b8e88c43414efddac063","side":"right"},{"sibling":"28b78fb112bcf26b6801664db97eb8f52a9bccbf0a7ae6766e11845d443692df","side":"left"},{"sibling":"68d0a4634c1460a19c92edd9480df3aa733b814463e7420d1e14471bf61b2f83","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8af64f275b862349aa3bbb9d5cd7fa9a7fdd5620af3bf1b36b2a4519b0b53bdf","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8f4c0fbe56b6c010fbb8c782ebcd478079bb3f991d8704e2534209a075d9163c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b98c2afadb358e5387e88f19588f8343a81b488d9b44a6f7e57a032db3a1b030","side":"right"},{"sibling":"11b0c1591747f09f7c8971a6caa19befcd81317ca9dfd417b143234df4e10c79","side":"right"},{"sibling":"87206f3bcc342797c990d87f7235c01f78d32ca59cfaf8ad18d71afc879ba477","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":140892,"merkle_root":"6cca56ead155990456b8a014cc50bddbe710f409b26e3d1bfa6fb12b0bfcf6bf","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260518T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-18T05:37:30Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"1e1135f7595f79b14fb11f5fa81a2e17ad31b11b44b427a5e40a7d511cd86447daf492babd368ab571cf26404c8c74c450d460130fca4b064eb2760367489a0f","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_78d47530fe0960eaae99c7a646ffed94f68592e046ac3dd947560a67d3d9f2fc"}}