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Comparing open-weight VLMs with traditional OCR baselines on low-resource Ancient Greek critical editions, we show that VLM errors often remain fluent even when wrong, producing plausible Greek substitutions where traditional engines produce local recognition noise. To analyze visual evidence during decoding, we introduce controlled image perturbations and token-level grounding measures based on conditional versus image-free decoding distributions. Under character-level perturbations, VLMs diverge sharply from the perturbed ground truth while traditional OCR remains comparatively faithful; however, token-level analysis shows that prior reliance is model-specific: in an OCR-specialist model, fluent lexical errors are produced with little relian","title":"Reading or Guessing? 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Under character-level perturbations, VLMs diverge sharply from the perturbed ground truth while traditional OCR remains comparatively faithful; however, token-level analysis shows that prior reliance is model-specific: in an OCR-specialist model, fluent lexical errors are produced with little relian","title":"Reading or Guessing? 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