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We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both. Working with Eternis-Forecaster 8B on OpenForesight, we train representation-pooling probes on intermediate activations and find they achieve substantially better calibration; a result that also holds for GLM-4.7-Flash and GLM-4.5-Air. We then assess CoT faithfulness through evidence ablation and diversionary injection: removing an influential source in the prompt often changes the model's forecast while leaving the reasoning trace untouched. The same probes function as lie detectors: their activations track behavioral shifts far better than the reasoning trace does, and they also predict the direction of change in 84% of cases, including when the CoT conceals the perturba","title":"What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08046","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.08046v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both. Working with Eternis-Forecaster 8B on OpenForesight, we train representation-pooling probes on intermediate activations and find they achieve substantially better calibration; a result that also holds for GLM-4.7-Flash and GLM-4.5-Air. 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The same probes function as lie detectors: their activations track behavioral shifts far better than the reasoning trace does, and they also predict the direction of change in 84% of cases, including when the CoT conceals the perturba","title":"What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-10T04:43:53Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08046"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:eb971200858b43795fe942227bf8dc09ba8d4ea0c91c97041d8c4e822a8c124e1fb7ae4a2df1cc2e9cca29008ac44e89c04f87172583fcfc47bc41084a389c04","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-10T04:43:53Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08046"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"8bf63f22a79891a7a63f87e404909f95f8902b5798bf1c61f8925099bea220a8","leaf_index":299450,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"ad4e813547c082fea569629fd21b73cdc16254298f0bbe4072ca29ca588bade2","side":"right"},{"sibling":"efd011e64e9be2be16fbf3606a2b859bc9073060420f9c7c65c01e72e777dd2e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f12e4d5f20b99649c5c1993f8299b28d36eaa771111ba339ae74c2bf53b2b066","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8b7c58b2848c23450a8416fc32545de9ae4987c5fef962643f9094888e0a0071","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4c34a483c1b8fcb2eae73c51e5afef12f5733d6f863ab9ff3e207c2ddfbe4c42","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f28ac6bb8a391ac9d62ae57f3339b85726df8e9410d52e586ea8c062e2e7cdb1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"315f14e236d484d058208a092c7e486bc56d42850a756f3d89959981a1458ce1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b1b72243c904808d4df9b283c65832a729a411520c97fd9d17f891f214971a0a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"2c5ce75ad134aa442d7fbb5dc9968b0f2e48097c2ffaa2111d405de1c4a9c48b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"36a2c507282befad57202dd10278a66d37b402692f195a22d2275b3d1b2488d8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f80e8d47e0860527b906fc2dba9a52609f7f623f2772479ae922cc019bab36d9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"cae83500ab2c25555aa6b5eaf9232696d15a868d91b34f7531dd955daadf70f7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"64dab64d51bdcb909e2a5e37efb8909d6704ecf824be484b5d2b60ee6e518890","side":"left"},{"sibling":"576f134a23c19a758ae5efd53016092a74b9900e878cf6eb4f3dab6be682b395","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3c65f53d7c3e4feba7c745e8df1327760ffa768eec84336db14d515a31731532","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d8b9143917b539c543cf4448cec00131f8b807bd8004979c54ebe09798748c66","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8728642cdb98496d916cc653f0d919d7eb2e89d0c529927c9e89091074ad584c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8025674cb002a22ae243ca0c295c18c1d0ee119189ea88e08ac14a3a1468b8e3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":299721,"merkle_root":"f7115d63193d3285ca28cb9f741ecea2513f9b3e492e785f97076f3cf8f9bb98","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260710T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-10T05:38:19Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"4eeedeb744885bff6523d66b1cb86bde62b36917696367addfd980d90b31011daece2e01b20608e4c0870ec31dd0bcb57d297447f01f153bf0716ad527142b00","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_9038b40d97492ae46f0dcda8eef15b1ab64fa98a564c4669e14fdaecf337069b"}}