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With a lot of hype and industrial demand in this field, it is not always clear how much progress there really is. To advance TS forecasting and analysis to the next level, here we argue that the field needs a dynamical systems (DS) perspective. TS of observations from natural or engineered systems almost always originate from some underlying DS, and arguably access to its governing equations would yield theoretically optimal forecasts. This is the promise of DS reconstruction (DSR), a class of ML/AI approaches that aim to infer surrogate models of the underlying DS from data. But models based on DS principles offer other profound advantages: Beyond short-term forecasts, they enable to predict the long-term statistics of an observed system, which in many practical scenarios may be the more","title":"Position: A Dynamical Systems Perspective is Needed to Advance Time Series Modeling","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16864","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2602.16864v2 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Time series (TS) modeling has come a long way from early statistical, mainly linear, approaches to the current trend in TS foundation models. With a lot of hype and industrial demand in this field, it is not always clear how much progress there really is. To advance TS forecasting and analysis to the next level, here we argue that the field needs a dynamical systems (DS) perspective. TS of observations from natural or engineered systems almost always originate from some underlying DS, and arguably access to its governing equations would yield theoretically optimal forecasts. This is the promise of DS reconstruction (DSR), a class of ML/AI approaches that aim to infer surrogate models of the underlying DS from data. But models based on DS principles offer other profound advantages: Beyond short-term forecasts, they enable to predict the long-term statistics of an observed system, which in many practical scenarios may be the more","title":"Position: A Dynamical Systems Perspective is Needed to Advance Time Series Modeling","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-06-08T04:44:02Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16864"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:6aeb251ac62e80cef7cd65d57c3e25fba6cb8581665d3ccb792ad35b32cfb55622ed7b67b6dda0ab8634bf73711e9d2bf3139d3bd8619c7c2bddcb54823efd01","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-06-08T04:44:02Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16864"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"4922115fffdcdaedfa458685ed342060cd07bc806a46c4d342ef2f284b05e37b","leaf_index":223874,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"4500f18bacde7ba9fb78de1c17922dac73f2699b07c57167c785f09d5a234610","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b8ac8b9838d37dccdad98349e131ac3cf191f576dd21201c8847be2c390f656e","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fae06683635ecde7cd41f5a07518b8ea3d55d262da60cc22c17389582b5bf99b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"137c2b9819d380ad5369a946c83c65a64bac8dfebc9eccec1b840c657d7e6ba4","side":"right"},{"sibling":"dd42295995afdfc41ea68d1a94b312610b27faac4e158080459345f952b6753e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7a3fd3b100f030f34dd146a0f7e7ff612e24a350629d2c6d2ccd949dabb576c8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d9e96a026bf19228243264aa70a028a48f8a58ae04caab8ebd434847bf9e27ac","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e9e4595b6d3a8db8d409d92f766595bee2c79e9389fc033969243fd816d368c5","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fad4d9627e4b025e7840b4e896082fb8291cbf1a4c05653b3a789c8a4205d4b5","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e8dcea313a54920d83e4f72d5a4223f986c719f264241d171c4712efaaf1fc54","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5480e1ea31f4744f9bd7c4261771fe51f2cdb01e705cc17320bfc202d935ca12","side":"right"},{"sibling":"24fdc29d461691aedb6fa920758206b5bb43851f477ef7a04c34aaed84b8971b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"036922da4e1e2c46d948f070454bfad299b7406fb00735ea9d8bd1e687f5f445","side":"right"},{"sibling":"533d82482604463aa4a281b9d8b85917b383b7c5f924b2b494039524c55e8797","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b2590791b920ca2a4ed39de126d2c0b1a10d9e7e62f572f12425f214e767b6e1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"87c6b850dfec08ac35a693d9db3a3315250a68adb1cfab9b1015f212b63b15bd","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c300cf0154c136afc09b1702a0be98f4ba5b6dc5cf57e8cc714ec1eaf4196eff","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":224761,"merkle_root":"e9f7b49b652e869ab97ffba9c5a31356b2d0e3dc5d00bb28944adf737c46b1e7","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260609T103805Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-06-09T14:15:34Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"8ad8076fb12c8e486ae1d1559a9a7ba8e2ee996a9ad3d8ba7bcdbdbd88ab3a15bcb429707aca6d3e9d8b97e2ba755b3dcc77b1abb6601ccb829842719a6fb30d","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_948f447d25a933ed66af067dcbdf83315d51232de14cb181f8d0c4d608d06a8d"}}