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This paper empirically investigates shortcut learning in this context by studying claim-level outcome prediction in UK Employment Tribunal (UKET) decisions. Using a corpus of 33,158 individual claims, we predict outcomes from claim texts and LLM-extracted case summaries, evaluating models ranging from interpretable TF-IDF-based classifiers to black-box LLMs. While headline predictive performance figures appear strong, we demonstrate that such performance in LJP systems trained on post-hoc judicial text can be driven by the retrospective nature of the source material. Stratifying the test data by human judgments of leakage reveals that performance increases where outcome-revealing cues are embedded in the narrative. Moreover, a model ","title":"Shortcut Learning in Legal Judgment Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the UK Employment Tribunal","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.04261","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.04261v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Current Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is constrained by its reliance on post-hoc judicial materials, increasing the likelihood that models perform retrospective classification rather than true forecasting. This paper empirically investigates shortcut learning in this context by studying claim-level outcome prediction in UK Employment Tribunal (UKET) decisions. Using a corpus of 33,158 individual claims, we predict outcomes from claim texts and LLM-extracted case summaries, evaluating models ranging from interpretable TF-IDF-based classifiers to black-box LLMs. While headline predictive performance figures appear strong, we demonstrate that such performance in LJP systems trained on post-hoc judicial text can be driven by the retrospective nature of the source material. Stratifying the test data by human judgments of leakage reveals that performance increases where outcome-revealing cues are embedded in the narrative. 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