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However, their performance hinges on how chunk boundaries are determined. While prior HSSMs typically rely on fixed-length chunking or similarity-based boundary detection, these methods often misalign with the intrinsic temporal structure of the data. We argue that chunking should instead be driven by prediction errors, which more directly indicate when longer-range context becomes necessary. Nevertheless, integrating surprise-based chunking into HSSMs introduces critical challenges, including hierarchical collapse during end-to-end training and the absence of surprise signals during open-loop prediction. To address these issues, we propose Surprise-based Nested Temporal Abstraction (SUNTA), a method that employs a decoupled training strategy to preserve surprise signals and uses internal inconsisten","title":"SUNTA: Hierarchical Video Prediction with Surprise-based Chunking","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.02087","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.02087v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Hierarchical state-space models (HSSMs) offer a promising approach to long-horizon prediction by segmenting sequences into temporal chunks. However, their performance hinges on how chunk boundaries are determined. While prior HSSMs typically rely on fixed-length chunking or similarity-based boundary detection, these methods often misalign with the intrinsic temporal structure of the data. We argue that chunking should instead be driven by prediction errors, which more directly indicate when longer-range context becomes necessary. Nevertheless, integrating surprise-based chunking into HSSMs introduces critical challenges, including hierarchical collapse during end-to-end training and the absence of surprise signals during open-loop prediction. To address these issues, we propose Surprise-based Nested Temporal Abstraction (SUNTA), a method that employs a decoupled training strategy to preserve surprise signals and uses internal inconsisten","title":"SUNTA: Hierarchical Video Prediction with Surprise-based Chunking","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-03T04:43:38Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.02087"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:db88a4638ffd8629b45dd22f9b963baf39f1861bddd8bcc082d823c51ec8cbc4dd92e27b9b3662857f015bff7198af751465ae8b3ca36869c29934ba12333006","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-03T04:43:38Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.02087"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"5b86159a69302a0603dd2aaa58a2490d8efda31da1961f47060afdd32ac916a9","leaf_index":275396,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"131dd9fa2d5ad43ae27c0a85f955564068756c6e63410748718d48971b9f3ca7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3d39faa9cdf5a0aa60db555d904c3aa5adaf509404f9a8b7b9f2734a0f228334","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b8b118396d612f07db7c06571ad3c252376cf286493b06e1d31f3c755ce2e9ed","side":"left"},{"sibling":"1da9d236c72cc5e1121662636d9c0a7ce46d55227287a77f4b9440d887af08dc","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5d8a5029c968d0f123b5bd1701855306d2cd60dd310556cfb484e937c3d1cde5","side":"right"},{"sibling":"849f8f2e2bcf09437f8fb74995be42a57cbd6b5bbf3b4d1b680700e05d9f3916","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3a4dd616b0a708226bdfc1375ba2f51d5b9f5745b3184702e9cbca38e27d2a27","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fd055e725b36f5bebbaeb18583f9d7011c4d8c2a608a11cbd2c166cd895e7a85","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e1a65581e9d68211aa8ba0d138c8d2a4e80afd551e6d1b00c4575c39085df705","side":"left"},{"sibling":"92c062f377cd53076b8dfe55c25ab217059e20113433673cc5747b9348b07e01","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e36f7633c67452f41a7377a7bec9b2d454442688d26539321eebf92cae9db0f0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"4dbd8247ba08a5432c7d6540711da9acb2f59e6189865aa8552dee37f69286a9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"41cd1885dc3fcb51e49eeb887d6d22ec2cfa58df0e4f8d7c7dddf3a1b0ce8249","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8a09562f6b247c1c3cd1fea36cb3b8f1cf5c575479dd514573856a380a964bf5","side":"left"},{"sibling":"723981908169653ca6d835aa9b8381a8c7ad3e3e3830d0792bc32032cda615ee","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c0594fa1ee81d5f019cccc7b5e51af603c6d7e43995498c451012060c7d06165","side":"right"},{"sibling":"4de6a2fb22efbb50c84dc62abeb0f2cbc8c663a9540aeba9e758ebfdfe3e86dd","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fdbb3519f8dc411a4043dfb5abdbfea5441e130326183ac2247c42584033f152","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":275799,"merkle_root":"2581d0d6e5fa345cdf2e8ab3b191ace76d6b14189901ab0e4c2291ca1d1ae1e6","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260703T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-03T05:38:09Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"e44a386a5ae00c0e7fc67b1179bb9060bf0fefc006e454fec70e27668182ff497d1e2faf0c3b22de0917beefb7c80e880dae925a3f67e1b16aa0eb44bf947407","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_9d49a85d25ac1122df1d9a77e8b53a0150872785cea5f4e8f9f4f3144adfe6b6"}}