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The treatment-effect estimates are often evaluated using statistical realism, the degree to which simulated responses reproduce properties of observed human responses, although whether realism predicts treatment-effect accuracy remains unknown. Here we test this proxy relationship by jointly measuring statistical realism and treatment-effect accuracy on the same simulated responses in a cross-national experiment with 59,508 participants from 62 countries using three LLMs. The correlation between statistical realism and treatment-effect accuracy is weak, and optimizing for statistical realism can even worsen treatment-effect accuracy when selecting models, prompts, and target populations. The pattern replicates in two additional cross-national experime","title":"Statistical realism is not evidence that LLMs can estimate treatment effects in social science experiments","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02458","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2604.02458v3 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human responses and estimate treatment effect of interventions when real-world experiments are costly or infeasible. The treatment-effect estimates are often evaluated using statistical realism, the degree to which simulated responses reproduce properties of observed human responses, although whether realism predicts treatment-effect accuracy remains unknown. Here we test this proxy relationship by jointly measuring statistical realism and treatment-effect accuracy on the same simulated responses in a cross-national experiment with 59,508 participants from 62 countries using three LLMs. The correlation between statistical realism and treatment-effect accuracy is weak, and optimizing for statistical realism can even worsen treatment-effect accuracy when selecting models, prompts, and target populations. 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