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Existing federated STF methods primarily regard cross-client heterogeneity as an optimization challenge and mitigate it through personalized approaches. However, such heterogeneity fundamentally stems from diverse \\emph{environmental conditions}, and these methods capture environment-specific forecasting patterns, hardly generalizing under environmental shifts. Our key insight is that the environmental diversity across federated clients should be exploited, as they provide \\emph{complementary observations of the same underlying spatio-temporal system}. Based on this insight, we propose \\method, a novel federated de-confounding framework that \\textbf{treats clients as distinct causal environments}. \\method leverages the client heterogeneity as distributed environmental evid","title":"Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.24218","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.24218v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Federated learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for spatio-temporal forecasting (STF), enabling collaborative model training without sharing raw observations. Existing federated STF methods primarily regard cross-client heterogeneity as an optimization challenge and mitigate it through personalized approaches. However, such heterogeneity fundamentally stems from diverse \\emph{environmental conditions}, and these methods capture environment-specific forecasting patterns, hardly generalizing under environmental shifts. Our key insight is that the environmental diversity across federated clients should be exploited, as they provide \\emph{complementary observations of the same underlying spatio-temporal system}. Based on this insight, we propose \\method, a novel federated de-confounding framework that \\textbf{treats clients as distinct causal environments}. \\method leverages the client heterogeneity as distributed environmental evid","title":"Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-28T04:43:08Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.24218"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:7d574caecc7d66669afba8a996a7d152672cf4ef6ba333fe2f3ca8b1a157d2588185cb5f2a192916facd5d22def34a46e3b892ccfa8349ac0fb8ad888a5f130f","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-28T04:43:08Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.24218"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"02636676b1cd4661090b335f910a52e9f4cef4622d58283bb106d0978a421804","leaf_index":360672,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"39856122c90b9f6e8fec19a94a986ab3f47620c495a364c4c3b4f22cb7f684b8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2fddd702cfd6f97249ac54f2f59aad16c06aa3dba1449ccf90553156bc610e15","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9a483f96ce3d18697fff25dd7df3d5b970137739a2da6b0a0441ec7b7dab944c","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1a8654083cde560355d672b487d9a921170fe9a700a1aadb4fc00071b9128281","side":"right"},{"sibling":"a333a1b50caf50b2e76f24d82a5abe6057f75422010a307a0d5a61ede6c6b2d9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8126fca9465f40046c62a130e39d35f26b4a21b5d36db9adb24de692af1207b2","side":"left"},{"sibling":"9f375fc8a084716711a7be00248cf68ffa1f4a9755be4f482aa761dcf36b15f9","side":"left"},{"sibling":"43776f432cc587f28ede8eaf5e1d4a4c47951623abe35c898f8f1127bf5ff870","side":"left"},{"sibling":"eb79f1d599c07786d2268140481af8b617999ecc5688c6283fe58e5e6f3a2640","side":"right"},{"sibling":"fe03c6d0b083c4097049d7fc6d7d08dfdb05d9c198b2786336689712d66eabf0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"590ea76fdfc1b9e8072055c378be3182f916709e8d06bd955232e650a7188b86","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d92781c59301ffd5bfb0bad75d9fdf6d73879f715518149d383f7362213e0daf","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f315303d4402b57497416d48eb4c4bb50405b40862d41c7caf318cb3d29c5237","side":"right"},{"sibling":"36973eb5f586cd67e0c0dc055dd87e734aa544c35d4400d2c9f932f8ef8fb27f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e39f7900355489c4718b21cc2d3d06382e1d2f22b864d10be9ebc9d498b279a1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1f9a970b25dd938c98cabc9e0a55c5a6f46292b9fa37cc89d90ef0cbb1e05a8c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"77025bcb374a7ad74f520643e20a8ae1205a7ee78507b0beb93117760f1c29d3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"3b50864499c874394ea0928567747666eaf59b01380e46cd52164ec5acec0f71","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":361008,"merkle_root":"3065e8369ea437c06beba806dc4e4bb159979adeb21fe632242c1906a7204647","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260728T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-28T05:38:48Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"9141644407577a82611c1579110f667de2d46dc6b93c6322edf26f4c3056ea99f0e56502853908e30d87c38bcf95eb6e0ab5130525aa51505bd6f61938120609","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_b1df7564e07d4e70f53dbbb5fd687fb018b5f114d84553a726b41cc2eb3d5d74"}}