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However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs are just unsupervised clustering algorithms. We demonstrate that most current approaches inherently quantify the internal consistency of the model's generations rather than their external correctness. Consequently, current methods are fundamentally blind to factual reality and fail to detect ``confident hallucinations,'' where models exhibit high confidence in stable but incorrect answers. Therefore, the current UQ methods may create a deceptive sense of safety when deploying the models with uncertainty. In detail, we identify three critical pathologies resulting from this dependence on internal state: a hyperparameter sensitivity crisis that renders deployment unsafe, an internal evaluation cycle that","title":"Position: Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs is Just Unsupervised Clustering","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.19220","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.19220v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs are just unsupervised clustering algorithms. We demonstrate that most current approaches inherently quantify the internal consistency of the model's generations rather than their external correctness. Consequently, current methods are fundamentally blind to factual reality and fail to detect ``confident hallucinations,'' where models exhibit high confidence in stable but incorrect answers. Therefore, the current UQ methods may create a deceptive sense of safety when deploying the models with uncertainty. In detail, we identify three critical pathologies resulting from this dependence on internal state: a hyperparameter sensitivity crisis that renders deployment unsafe, an internal evaluation cycle that","title":"Position: Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs is Just Unsupervised Clustering","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.19220"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:23db9e13ccc7bca1b9fa630b35ba5136ed2c0256278c21fbf4d56a36cd9b548cafe076a2cbf425f2669d0d0bcdfecb6cb7725bedd9f7ea0bc6d3cd4d0887c40a","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.19220"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"621a663dc45b013765ff8defc58b427cab3bfe48f39308ec4c2b4ccf01a16ddc","leaf_index":145092,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"9b8d5b33b8b2dce1625a0fd15e068a324d220d0b891b4bfc6b73f75dadcb8dd6","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2875ad9eba2b386d04e3c40a131585651adc5a24bd0d88c483ca8c99752488b3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"daaab333a5b0f0473b0292a3a6f1917be957d03e787a2fb758689f210d80b5bb","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8e6a47fa482b431365c727e6eea53b30038fd8624b950471d9206ebe36b269aa","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e23202e93860f0a5b136f48911791517357b35005bc12c92565f0bee93a69369","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f646c1672cd462d70b2731c0b5f68f2731316aafa7f6d887880a7f356dd82c82","side":"right"},{"sibling":"14b33559692f11ef077e3863ff56431a676a64de58614d8dda5f4a9e91838cf8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"3047d0cbdc103ff93a1a073ea940e12ff062595dae419513748ed63fbcb3359c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"9db04d2181fb869f16a5baf7dcfe999cc93a7e9beef8493d0cc71f57470fe5e1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1526885f19d1fadf6955cf519dbc4e62d593a4bba99d741e8c301740a7068233","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3a7d5c07f161682d61bd453ffc02ecdf87cfeda70f986d6650017f9d2d6b265","side":"left"},{"sibling":"edbc49f08e5b92291934c05c9e6efd270a6b0698d8d2fa474006366027dfe098","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3e4df6e7457cecbf36f350375e72dcab336a3984422e4c406ef809e4e2944e96","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8f4c0fbe56b6c010fbb8c782ebcd478079bb3f991d8704e2534209a075d9163c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"be08fedc4e72a6fb56606f66812fae7317e09690b9acb18385f4ab117a981238","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0534329a7475dc9df51998c83c16892126679dade0fa34182f21e869599386c7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2d24720928ead0e7670650eb55f558c4f20e4c18df376f47ba72cfa8cf0ed344","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":147301,"merkle_root":"08903d7159c3b38eeeeafc09eab15139ea417f1d94f02f1fbc87296b37db840a","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260521T183701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-21T18:37:33Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"905f2924632dfa2970c8690285f5b5d4a1d891d0e0ef1cbc404ebec2fd937215ac768e16f0a9f28b18977a55ae0bfd226db6833ae7ef588729054117d2da7303","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_c17fda5d59185d8d468859b5001430f9f1282f1d994671efafa0f04ddfbce0db"}}