{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_c3d8e6213a4abf59108b748e2c0b3bc32cebe5c95305ed007c5a4612c29f4080","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":[],"calendar_attestations":[],"ots_url":"","stamped_at":"","status":"pending_next_stamp"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_c3d8e6213a4abf59108b748e2c0b3bc32cebe5c95305ed007c5a4612c29f4080","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"37e31886fab6f8a7711230a8fd58165da933bdedc2060da3443a6458dbf64e58","published":"Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"37e31886fab6f8a7711230a8fd58165da933bdedc2060da3443a6458dbf64e58","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"37e31886fab6f8a7711230a8fd58165da933bdedc2060da3443a6458dbf64e58","observed_at":"2026-07-08T04:43:57.834712Z","parent_run_hash":"46ab019f0b0f0bfcde5e14ed7c256069c6fa8c8079b9f87fd3a8a6d9259e3864","published":"Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2607.06166v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are based on central limit order books in which informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed strategies can profit on simple heuristics. We resolve this discrepancy by establishing a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability. For any strictly proper scoring rule $S$, we exhibit a \"proper\" betting strategy that depends only on the forecaster's prediction $\\mathbf{p}$ and the market price $\\mathbf{q}$, and earns positive expected profit whenever $\\mathbf{p}$ outperforms $\\mathbf{q}$ under $S$ and the market has sufficient liquidity. Moreover, this proper betting is essentially the only strategy ","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06166","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2607.06166v1 Announce Type: new \nAbstract: Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are based on central limit order books in which informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed strategies can profit on simple heuristics. We resolve this discrepancy by establishing a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability. For any strictly proper scoring rule $S$, we exhibit a \"proper\" betting strategy that depends only on the forecaster's prediction $\\mathbf{p}$ and the market price $\\mathbf{q}$, and earns positive expected profit whenever $\\mathbf{p}$ outperforms $\\mathbf{q}$ under $S$ and the market has sufficient liquidity. Moreover, this proper betting is essentially the only strategy ","title":"When do prophets profit in prediction markets?","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-08T04:43:57Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06166"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:3d5083b7522f7aa5bf7481f11b9373d06ed84e1873dd0dd9bef2720206e642ca8bb08cd13b515b65214f8d46b29b67f982cd90f152ea15f815cd44dfefe57a09","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-08T04:43:57Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06166"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"e1ded8f676a004892ea18756851d9305fe987f65123352ff8336ec19ee028344","leaf_index":292635,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"7dbc5333935c5fc983132e3e54e54cb70af68344795db54b8f548c3359758ad9","side":"left"},{"sibling":"7e28fa0e09a5b0ec53cbfdf175b758b0d02365c960cc900fa71c42b4b32a2e8b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"96d859750df1da5cab2b60aa7c6fa1ad81d87858a48f8ca997a83f060a24154b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"010c96ea03b75c098479409b35572e886cade8d243c8dd4b835992cb3084fc59","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b58ade3a2b4d2d1308013db14f36ff3d331b5999484f8b28ab0610645d1adc64","side":"left"},{"sibling":"268657446c37b3e0150999dbf0995a3121d979a7d47b0e126f3fdcd6c05982a9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"28bb59643b308594ed3d4dae811cdf7adef9eb3ec914130dd008ce6291093259","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7db888cb3645d8b5e3052bd5d092a85490e29ab732a691eb6a8b8560770aa0ff","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1515812edbf9903d3d787f20218b8577e2f1fef32592508ce01a3b3ebe75f507","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d4b475beae71e5b4d5ab7e66f7144e7b8e1356fcd32339e49df234b455659fef","side":"left"},{"sibling":"cead64e0790e8871aeea2334210146b5e35fe7e4bc10748acdf76da0c565be05","side":"left"},{"sibling":"d1231ac6e6bd7d6867a9109fbdadede0b1631e97866ddde70f7ac2d52c28e15f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"76855b4804c75c52bf97aa34358950d42d6103cdc1a86be5f0a2c8de4d65c106","side":"left"},{"sibling":"a75ab4319e241beeddb1b3f5705febe0422937926c3479923ccfb0b0082fa4e3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"bd04fa605f883bfb2b81510d045b1e85e555a03da3be083619f61384dfe40ff8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"9e75f2ab0ddf2dc9e92af7049244c21b909734ab57906a35dfad2853ca9966e2","side":"right"},{"sibling":"e6cd4cad39a4b6ca6647d1b0ad2db86e57e5fa6240f65966c10093e91140769b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"90a7efc6b94ec8913fbdf03f4927a821b9fb89921d526716f5ee28f015303779","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":292998,"merkle_root":"f533b7efebdfd8fb6ba3e7cc158ee55261fd53a7985f234cfea359170dad4d5a","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260708T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-08T05:38:17Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"07ebb10c732bbffb28b55a5db01d5525f6b8ab7ef36e1e0a68c35c96ded99f7040c277edba75eb6b15c77feda30bd5321e31ada6f572b674d06f4f8e24bd2f07","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_c3d8e6213a4abf59108b748e2c0b3bc32cebe5c95305ed007c5a4612c29f4080"}}