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We test for these effects in preliminary evidence from an ongoing evaluation of AI capabilities across over 3,000 broad-based tasks derived from the U.S. Department of Labor O*NET categorization that are text-based and thus LLM-addressable. Based on more than 17,000 evaluations by workers from these jobs, we find little evidence of crashing waves (in contrast to recent work by METR), but substantial evidence that rising tides are the primary form of AI automation. AI performance is high and improving rapidly across a wide range of tasks. We estimate that, in 2024-Q2, AI models successfully complete tasks that take humans approximately 3-4 hours with about a 50% success rate, increasing to about 65% by 2025","title":"Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01363","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2604.01363v2 Announce Type: replace \nAbstract: We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based. We test for these effects in preliminary evidence from an ongoing evaluation of AI capabilities across over 3,000 broad-based tasks derived from the U.S. Department of Labor O*NET categorization that are text-based and thus LLM-addressable. 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We estimate that, in 2024-Q2, AI models successfully complete tasks that take humans approximately 3-4 hours with about a 50% success rate, increasing to about 65% by 2025","title":"Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-07-23T04:43:18Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01363"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:f0ffd4567b0057c0d7b5539d926c088e20a27dbd41555eb28b3747adf4385e87d2b7a68c3ed7397623d615450d9dc651fa809fd287fffd83ea5bdb6505021500","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-07-23T04:43:18Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01363"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"dd3560c36740f4d66c855bc1ddc2bf1b5f231971cbd43261aef329acffa399ac","leaf_index":343755,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"57cca7d8502b50c17b187dd27e49790cffc1aaf096c9e4d1ab7120e56a2ed9d1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"dae21e3dce3cc11c5223c019d4745ce0e236740177bc892056a1824022eef768","side":"left"},{"sibling":"239bb8f18381818fee875ba094ec76411f85924ad122d087d3623f1c6e5879d6","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c6ca8731e936d7878c3c860f2b5a9cde297686e29227ddf2eb5b9f9e7ae6761c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"a883f8cbaabe0f193b615b555acda99f0e94d9e92c6520c5960253ee4ad839c9","side":"right"},{"sibling":"bd62965e883f30b5727471e8ff54a8dd65e32e4f4987b1fd326fdacea35f9b59","side":"right"},{"sibling":"84e2bd69f70ff0e814f453c01a295fde8d94bdb3824a1424ab4fd97be4fa4cba","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fbe8bc0f33cd1a297ce2f845b101ed1107ebb67f2c2577c28ed032c1046d3b97","side":"left"},{"sibling":"6ecdcc1e2fb6ab44777fffbb7c8297d723018c63aac9d90c7a1bbebe728d84cf","side":"right"},{"sibling":"93d7d8e0e882d05b2a15bb707a824979a0427907eb47e687c712906674a0d345","side":"left"},{"sibling":"92219a3ef58cd145d94f071b0b9396cec3707812b02a8c7c63f2d0e22340552b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"4eb402d67bd4bf583b0434363061166fe259c34cc6c42adb32dcfbff0a9f5767","side":"left"},{"sibling":"2dd9cb2521044ee7c6b74f2315e0a0253b8df0d04a7b810bbbbe7da5a9788769","side":"left"},{"sibling":"21d66dd41003813f710b7617944f1bfba3258658a5d3370c21cad8f9e945bc99","side":"left"},{"sibling":"941f71d7ce3990a507b8f485de3f872a51d0e9a8c59405d76c2ae6f4a6af494a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6281b6f7a93c44e3c4895bc65cfcb6f2be24dd725f4f46540ec022a6e215f4e8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"77025bcb374a7ad74f520643e20a8ae1205a7ee78507b0beb93117760f1c29d3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"6baede22892163664bb2e4d92cf75e6b290761533a6c39491c3afd89bb3a0252","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1cecb7f447febd025aac272837c80de218aecc6485d2395a509b2a1f1b9c746e","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":343944,"merkle_root":"afab58f71597d393a7a61b857dac2eacb72fd1c04cd1432c2622d7b19309dffd","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260723T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-07-23T05:38:39Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"1a58fdc6367d0c86f83d2385be748e0800a64bcf9987c92fadca53deda009cd390d2070302c2b6e44841febfd864637c323ba12c7a1e9ae58fdf2a0cf546ac01","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_d9211d942ce16f2fa8a7ce0518876d8ff1550c781e6ee21918cdf4a116651e9d"}}