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We construct a benchmark of 40 empirical policy evaluation cases drawn from economics and social science, each grounded in peer-reviewed evidence and classified by intuitiveness -- whether the empirical finding aligns with (obvious), is unclear relative to (ambiguous), or contradicts (counter-intuitive) common prior expectations. We evaluate four frontier LLMs across five prompting strategies with 8,000 experimental trials and analyze the results using mixed-effects logistic regression. 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