{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_e880f9390f40682946675a2b09b9cd2df857f227a71a995d49301d4e9aca427b","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":[],"calendar_attestations":[],"ots_url":"","stamped_at":"","status":"pending_next_stamp"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_e880f9390f40682946675a2b09b9cd2df857f227a71a995d49301d4e9aca427b","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"f982bfd59b9072d3420c367445b5ae679dd0ffb7945ad78f462f96846faa1baa","published":"Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"f982bfd59b9072d3420c367445b5ae679dd0ffb7945ad78f462f96846faa1baa","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"f982bfd59b9072d3420c367445b5ae679dd0ffb7945ad78f462f96846faa1baa","observed_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39.018238Z","parent_run_hash":"dca8dedd754ad6a1772113d6b97ee4f4ab9a0afbdeb44aaace5ff2d2446b164b","published":"Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2509.21592v2 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single imag","title":"What Happens Next? Anticipating Future Motion by Generating Point Trajectories","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.21592","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2509.21592v2 Announce Type: replace-cross \nAbstract: We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single imag","title":"What Happens Next? Anticipating Future Motion by Generating Point Trajectories","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.21592"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:1a3ca47d07ea48ae28481ae035f2e7a46275b920acbd29780ef353ad1bde9830131044e8e797227b89bc7c9c0107b5c1bb26544581a326e89e628bf29485b30f","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.21592"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"52c20cbcaa6f911dc1e45886ba69ee4b70336f78994096061c3513620e9e491a","leaf_index":151888,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"d29056c89596942dcf868d26549f02d636bf9d2e2cc898346c5d5bda2b25c3bd","side":"right"},{"sibling":"ccbed7473cdc063679ae3d0ceb509254ee694a419fe121da9c155c87eb7d8450","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d984ac188700f6b1156d117714b28a7e05d7382264bba7dbb2c07c9cd000a184","side":"right"},{"sibling":"950bf93553755fc761c3680c1a7f64639fe3792f5f2e0c97b4a62f870c671113","side":"right"},{"sibling":"5542778527acc86293da788d5381063ce3ce65e7b274609566b485917809cb77","side":"left"},{"sibling":"c23ac699c8ca8a0fb511bf1c4d94cfad5180bb945b651ec04bb28c5f3ed8bdfc","side":"right"},{"sibling":"7bd757323466f2d5e9a78f8308b6ddad9ce121c71e69a2be470e169f21e5583b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"b8013a4d5795f8230d3abb917aff567dadf5c7a3494daf94843cddd93f67ecf8","side":"right"},{"sibling":"6c8b632bc887ad8683d2d08a66a66babfd1e8e43de4b1b760ed3f3d35d5b02e1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"879666fab72e779ab55d0564eaabd64b00534fd6bba7f18412c7f31f61ffd09f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f40ccedd90c323817e961adc0a2e2db82b8aabe192b6c9d5a373ff988987b207","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b85ea61ae405eed84392a7b6b1eee5536f5a38d6b04070638e23ec7b71e3443a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d415e6939aee710631f5062799379b547d2c3e3d9a68f263bbb5a693285ab2ca","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e5893793e3591ed7f5e58ca94ffcfba46bb30f69fb1c25d5ba8ef49eb99f9126","side":"right"},{"sibling":"35ca36cee447f0ef7064a25d55f59357c66901e31427729c4c1d8b14aa8adb6c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3eecaf996dbe7229a7bb1d234c97aea97a252c5f7c89f8547b6d091db0f0e40","side":"right"},{"sibling":"55bcbd4da3e20d93931f7e58673f10232e81a5b1514d7396cb4b71e8f95788d0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":152106,"merkle_root":"ac5182c6f3dd09931f2a689df5f4be36df7b55e55bcf106e195671f5ed55fd8f","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260526T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-26T05:37:34Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"a401243fbd2c077d29a623c6ef616c78fbd5c8ce1930afa7af7165b2386e5a8cf15d5094983a1c962e71b27b911a3f3ce09c8cfab9393be2ce5ce8ee6513da06","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_e880f9390f40682946675a2b09b9cd2df857f227a71a995d49301d4e9aca427b"}}