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On anti-commonsense CLadder items, a fixed linear probe recovers the evidence-supported answer from the model's hidden state (accuracy approximately 0.97), while the spoken Yes/No reverts to the commonsense one (accuracy approximately 0.5). We call this approximately +0.5 gap Causal Tongue-Tie: a wrong Yes/No decomposes into two separable failure modes: no internal signal versus a signal the verbal interface cannot say. The implication cuts both ways for output-only causal benchmarks: a benchmark \"correct\" need not mean the model has understood, and a benchmark \"wrong\" need not mean it cannot. Sweeping claims about whether LLMs can do causal reasoning, drawn from a single accuracy number, deserve a second look.","title":"Causal Tongue-Tie: LLMs Can Encode Causal Direction, But Their Yes/No Outputs Fail to Express","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25891","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.25891v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: We find a mismatch between what large language models encode about a causal question and what they answer. On anti-commonsense CLadder items, a fixed linear probe recovers the evidence-supported answer from the model's hidden state (accuracy approximately 0.97), while the spoken Yes/No reverts to the commonsense one (accuracy approximately 0.5). We call this approximately +0.5 gap Causal Tongue-Tie: a wrong Yes/No decomposes into two separable failure modes: no internal signal versus a signal the verbal interface cannot say. The implication cuts both ways for output-only causal benchmarks: a benchmark \"correct\" need not mean the model has understood, and a benchmark \"wrong\" need not mean it cannot. Sweeping claims about whether LLMs can do causal reasoning, drawn from a single accuracy number, deserve a second look.","title":"Causal Tongue-Tie: LLMs Can Encode Causal Direction, But Their Yes/No Outputs Fail to Express","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25891"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:f45f745aa87723006251157f79d1544b9842a860db769fa3d60e72322ea34d8cb85f74ba1849ee3819e5cfd2efec4bc109296fc4ddbb74a9432e0037e9fe5d0e","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-26T04:43:39Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25891"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"94c29f051aaff6ce136f335e1b9cb10b1212389c8ca3785485a9b8903b472d00","leaf_index":151739,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"28f53e68e5c4ed561f3a7131774c37f648b3148322a992aa294e8bbefd028dfe","side":"left"},{"sibling":"612f3bbbbaa374fdfaf421b74c99b7aaecd19c28cdd6d798b8c22a4d590a72af","side":"left"},{"sibling":"20ccc7ff1f03a2d60fa1b8728d4c19f8cdc9d698c1cfe6295c0c16bdba285564","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3b0d59885a736905c4146a45399a8b6c26ed07416340c1b9b8c69ff33845cfd8","side":"left"},{"sibling":"a5902b876622bd211b3c9e464511b2e35b3065be489c1576ee6f299c1855d2f1","side":"left"},{"sibling":"1fdb62cc53d97a7f7a1438e1d514a795206e3fd636e208e00b18fba2519cd611","side":"left"},{"sibling":"59c025ecd2dec1777c83a364f63a0af602c1b8c1069e8b09513a2e68a6f64e32","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f9db7ff3c5db7011b2738b446bad7b165ec8fd162c800ba3bad08298201edaa3","side":"left"},{"sibling":"aff657821100efc777fe98abc63d25a13c2d813d2a00f85a278e295ee3a166b3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"879666fab72e779ab55d0564eaabd64b00534fd6bba7f18412c7f31f61ffd09f","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f40ccedd90c323817e961adc0a2e2db82b8aabe192b6c9d5a373ff988987b207","side":"right"},{"sibling":"b85ea61ae405eed84392a7b6b1eee5536f5a38d6b04070638e23ec7b71e3443a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d415e6939aee710631f5062799379b547d2c3e3d9a68f263bbb5a693285ab2ca","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e5893793e3591ed7f5e58ca94ffcfba46bb30f69fb1c25d5ba8ef49eb99f9126","side":"right"},{"sibling":"35ca36cee447f0ef7064a25d55f59357c66901e31427729c4c1d8b14aa8adb6c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3eecaf996dbe7229a7bb1d234c97aea97a252c5f7c89f8547b6d091db0f0e40","side":"right"},{"sibling":"55bcbd4da3e20d93931f7e58673f10232e81a5b1514d7396cb4b71e8f95788d0","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":152106,"merkle_root":"ac5182c6f3dd09931f2a689df5f4be36df7b55e55bcf106e195671f5ed55fd8f","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260526T053701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-26T05:37:34Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"a401243fbd2c077d29a623c6ef616c78fbd5c8ce1930afa7af7165b2386e5a8cf15d5094983a1c962e71b27b911a3f3ce09c8cfab9393be2ce5ce8ee6513da06","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_eb10e886d80d3cd989093d1dfefaee41ea093e31efb0a3efd5496da2795b5545"}}