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A common assumption is that if each model is individually calibrated, the aggregate prediction will also be well calibrated. We show that this assumption fails in multi-agent settings: individually calibrated predictors can become collectively miscalibrated when their predictions interact strategically, in the game-theoretic sense of Brier-optimal local response, even without deliberate coordination.\n  This phenomenon arises naturally when agents are independently trained on overlapping data. We prove that under Brier-score-based aggregation with positively correlated beliefs, each agent's individually optimal report systematically underestimates the positive-class probability, yielding a Price of Anarchy greater than one whenever Cov(b_i, b_j) > 0.\n  In a canonical setting (n = 5 agents, pairwise correlation = 0.5, base ","title":"When Individually Calibrated Models Become Collectively Miscalibrated","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18858","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2605.18858v1 Announce Type: cross \nAbstract: Probabilistic prediction systems often aggregate probability estimates from multiple models into a single decision. A common assumption is that if each model is individually calibrated, the aggregate prediction will also be well calibrated. We show that this assumption fails in multi-agent settings: individually calibrated predictors can become collectively miscalibrated when their predictions interact strategically, in the game-theoretic sense of Brier-optimal local response, even without deliberate coordination.\n  This phenomenon arises naturally when agents are independently trained on overlapping data. We prove that under Brier-score-based aggregation with positively correlated beliefs, each agent's individually optimal report systematically underestimates the positive-class probability, yielding a Price of Anarchy greater than one whenever Cov(b_i, b_j) > 0.\n  In a canonical setting (n = 5 agents, pairwise correlation = 0.5, base ","title":"When Individually Calibrated Models Become Collectively Miscalibrated","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18858"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:bc773a7c9635d1f55b274fe5e6f69eb39ad815568f080c29b7a6945e0e3cbce3dd7eb658e30a4ea89057cb9d7a244ab107c4d8993b78b962c3b266e5a24ae603","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-20T04:43:44Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18858"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"3bbb64bb6019be9b409c4142a10603083d902ebf88044182521350570d8d2463","leaf_index":145021,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"49e93fa5755d871953c27b6c7dabf54d71d7d0f6b9640546e48e93f70a27c6d0","side":"left"},{"sibling":"97923b3550245f3c026c627e6201c2e33adc0b9759a39f4aee634345ac12c74a","side":"right"},{"sibling":"59857d1e8f7f504e805e017c45f238b080677bda8b94266b8fece338c130fd49","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8eca650d020d9ffc40f976b2ac15abd3278cbed7dd838d045c4735294e324802","side":"left"},{"sibling":"fee9eb709e441260d34f3083e899913a496d5e4ad4f51753737be777901bfa0a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5efc60a8437bb8dfc7d20976dabe21eacc357a19aa672a53914e2792ef2fa629","side":"left"},{"sibling":"41f0af342418ef1081b5d968b56fe8290cf77b51073587d5abca55a1dcf5d23b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"5c26ec91378ced2564bd7218068bacda3ade3a0517e2dc081e9d169a340044ba","side":"right"},{"sibling":"9db04d2181fb869f16a5baf7dcfe999cc93a7e9beef8493d0cc71f57470fe5e1","side":"right"},{"sibling":"1526885f19d1fadf6955cf519dbc4e62d593a4bba99d741e8c301740a7068233","side":"left"},{"sibling":"e3a7d5c07f161682d61bd453ffc02ecdf87cfeda70f986d6650017f9d2d6b265","side":"left"},{"sibling":"edbc49f08e5b92291934c05c9e6efd270a6b0698d8d2fa474006366027dfe098","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3e4df6e7457cecbf36f350375e72dcab336a3984422e4c406ef809e4e2944e96","side":"left"},{"sibling":"8f4c0fbe56b6c010fbb8c782ebcd478079bb3f991d8704e2534209a075d9163c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"be08fedc4e72a6fb56606f66812fae7317e09690b9acb18385f4ab117a981238","side":"right"},{"sibling":"0534329a7475dc9df51998c83c16892126679dade0fa34182f21e869599386c7","side":"right"},{"sibling":"2d24720928ead0e7670650eb55f558c4f20e4c18df376f47ba72cfa8cf0ed344","side":"right"},{"sibling":"d841ad93efda0869e5eb97678f348f03f5caab4353e05ff4bf18f47fb945b822","side":"left"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":147301,"merkle_root":"08903d7159c3b38eeeeafc09eab15139ea417f1d94f02f1fbc87296b37db840a","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260521T183701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-21T18:37:33Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"905f2924632dfa2970c8690285f5b5d4a1d891d0e0ef1cbc404ebec2fd937215ac768e16f0a9f28b18977a55ae0bfd226db6833ae7ef588729054117d2da7303","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_eee7ab342147b9b7b246eee57fae0c7cc8af016a1b724f5c3194b937ac0f9a03"}}