{"_canonicalization":{"envelope_id":"axm_ + sha256(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id, anchors})","envelope_signature":"ed25519(envelope minus {signature, axiom_id})","json":"sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False, allow_nan=False, utf-8","leaf_hash":"sha256(0x00 || canonical_json(envelope_full))","seal_signature":"ed25519(seal minus {signature, sig_algorithm})"},"axiom_id":"axm_f613548ef9203c3582d577e9643041f66a33b3dcb25663cfa2f6f8c740bd6573","bitcoin_anchor":{"bitcoin_attestations":["bitcoin_block_949451"],"calendar_attestations":["https://finney.calendar.eternitywall.com","https://btc.calendar.catallaxy.com","https://alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org","https://bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org"],"ots_url":"/registry/data/substrate/anchors/77fc9c28fae777b81da5b495b3115474df6592dfac590333213d3bdf8b94a9b3.ots","stamped_at":"2026-05-15T03:00:03Z","status":"bitcoin"},"envelope":{"anchors":[{"chain":"crovia.axiom_graph","height":0,"merkle_proof":"spider_vendor_press_v1","root_at_anchor":"spider_vendor_press_v1"}],"axiom_id":"axm_f613548ef9203c3582d577e9643041f66a33b3dcb25663cfa2f6f8c740bd6573","axiom_type":"AX.OBS","body":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","fingerprint":"a3a98d7559511b0ff02fd6f44b942a9e559d67ca0c07ea64a90aea4ddbad7941","published":"Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","receipt_hash":"a3a98d7559511b0ff02fd6f44b942a9e559d67ca0c07ea64a90aea4ddbad7941","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","spider":"vendor_press","spider_record":{"axiom_subtype":"news.vendor_press.v1","category":"news","decision_hint":"POSITIVE","envelope_target":"AX.OBS","fingerprint":"a3a98d7559511b0ff02fd6f44b942a9e559d67ca0c07ea64a90aea4ddbad7941","observed_at":"2026-05-06T04:43:18.518819Z","parent_run_hash":"184209fc0f2ebdc4b721e1a74f74ab17637dab3344682b6e6bd1f3e5e8f2cd00","published":"Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 -0400","runtime_version":"0.1.0","schema":"spider.news.vendor_press.v1","source_status":200,"source_url":"https://export.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI","spider":"vendor_press","summary_excerpt":"arXiv:2604.18576v3 Announce Type: replace \nAbstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running $K$ independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, incl","title":"Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.18576","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"summary":"arXiv:2604.18576v3 Announce Type: replace \nAbstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running $K$ independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, incl","title":"Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs","vendor":"arxiv_cs_ai"},"confidence":{"method":"deterministic"},"decision":"POSITIVE","issued_at":"2026-05-06T04:43:18Z","notes":"Spider vendor_press (news) news.vendor_press.v1","object":{"captured_by":"crovia.spider.vendor_press","primary_source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.18576"},"predecessors":[],"schema":"crovia.axiom.v1","signature":"ed25519:f3956b3ca954756570f10fb43cf9ab354e774eaf012e2c67f48c54287fd795799a97dd39eccf79733a182c368ffc542a872e262dde3819d7bbfcaf8456d0c600","signer":"crovia.substrate","subject":{"observed_at":"2026-05-06T04:43:18Z","source_collector":"spider:vendor_press","target_id":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.18576"},"tsa":{"authority":"crovia.substrate.bootstrap","rfc3161_token":"{\"kind\":\"crovia.bootstrap.tsa\",\"source_jsonl\":\"/opt/crovia/spider/data/news/vendor_press_v1.jsonl\",\"source_seal_merkle_root\":\"spider_vendor_press_v1\",\"upgrade_path\":\"Sessione H \\u2014 OpenTimestamps weekly anchor\"}"},"zk_mode":"clear","zk_proof":null},"ledger":{"leaf_hash":"b61aa5a0a38e625a54cb49b79542a8d0bfa0f109da23ceffd31b1eaffdb3378b","leaf_index":116446,"ledger_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl"},"merkle_proof":{"hash_alg":"sha256","leaf_prefix":"0x00","node_prefix":"0x01","odd_leaf_rule":"duplicate_last","path":[{"sibling":"4e558c025c5d4112e817a8b4f516955a89d08f7da43b285ca0ff189c608cc962","side":"right"},{"sibling":"f7cddf26edfa82612642e88c64c098489f0f1d9bc5fdf545d4e0a52e301f039b","side":"left"},{"sibling":"cae88b9130e7aedc785dd52fd199f32ed8883161b2628d4b01bea608668b0d58","side":"left"},{"sibling":"dbdfd3d9a5210c5105a373d3db0f76c0439db9592738eb1b6bc67e2e55fbe0e6","side":"left"},{"sibling":"445419ceee110a7b11b311cd7f73e2bc7b413d1898f20bd4af128d8ce5b363cf","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ef5fe04b64cf0fb50e71dc2d999ac13d32dff59697808d11301613ee8e663a00","side":"right"},{"sibling":"4cc9938ba74578c39e57576728cd5667cffc329ca7f59abc83c2dfe415d03818","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ae2d4d1f9926c807a390f0c20c0a0e8fc89204c3e1f66866d3ea0fda3757402d","side":"left"},{"sibling":"7a43f13f6340a269b939be4b6e73a199a4e8061f0cf9dbb9ba629243174142d3","side":"right"},{"sibling":"c750384c973eaf46aa237cdabe7a75729862dd4101dca10cb8e0626e0ec2d34a","side":"left"},{"sibling":"ddc060ac400459417799f688c75d5b271636afa40d89ec7fc98652473a8061f6","side":"left"},{"sibling":"282afa51266e47629e34d808a360bbb276348bcc5a24bdcc93e83a76e580293e","side":"right"},{"sibling":"05f89b32c00462e60adf95c1fe4579cdc2791b36e8b17573d8f3b5fd5da95a0b","side":"right"},{"sibling":"8ccd9937a2c0d5c04044d07d1557791b7d07bb31eac41a39a675608d44b38f23","side":"right"},{"sibling":"3a5e69cf0803f4c91f3895ed7c9a95748fef240bec4422e167c05300f79f06c0","side":"left"},{"sibling":"f2817ab288b5324fe49770372c7a10f33f7cd11005f8d4c0a730316f5229dc98","side":"left"},{"sibling":"725fac972e772ca0dc598810ea1abc70df472f72d2d6ab8a0baee2b80e5d2f4c","side":"left"},{"sibling":"98fc57dfef8873b512edc8340f7181df57302bb96777625e072235c62d7c5895","side":"right"}]},"schema":"crovia.axiom_proof.v1","seal":{"first_collector_run_id":"","first_receipt_hash":"","jsonl_path":"/opt/crovia/substrate/axiom_ledger.jsonl","key_id":"430895f101d38164","last_collector_run_id":"","last_receipt_hash":"","leaf_count":134292,"merkle_root":"77fc9c28fae777b81da5b495b3115474df6592dfac590333213d3bdf8b94a9b3","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","run_id":"hourly_json_retrofit_20260515T023701Z","schema":"crovia.seal.v1","seal_family_version":"crovia-seal-family/1","seal_kind":"substrate_batch","sealed_at":"2026-05-15T02:37:25Z","sig_algorithm":"ed25519","signature":"68107a834b00b24f5d4501e5ec727445311f132a486567ecc4c72a4e6dff24c8c21f2de3105293353ba5fdbe370d032819af6aa70f694e2e39b6af6737507009","signer_version":"1.1.0"},"trust_root":{"key_id":"430895f101d38164","public_key_hex":"cf742e26f75669dc673cb5c0786a1ae23ae8ca19c347317192ce40c28a7ff25c","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","url":"/registry/canon/TRUST_ROOT.md"},"verifier":{"spec":"/registry/canon/AXIOM_RECEIPT_v1.md","url":"/v/axm_f613548ef9203c3582d577e9643041f66a33b3dcb25663cfa2f6f8c740bd6573"}}